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Thread: Supply Chain Mgmt -- Forecast Errors

  1. #1
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    Supply Chain Mgmt -- Forecast Errors

    Hi,

    I'm taking a course on Supply Chain Mmgt. Currently, we're discussing "forecast errors" such as the
    - Mean Squared Error (MSE)
    - MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
    - MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)
    - Bias
    - Tracking Signal (TS)

    I'm completely worked out an elaborate Excel solution. The actual Excel spreadsheet is not important for addressing this question though.

    However, I'm trying to get a better understanding (the textbook is not very clear in my opinion) as to how the 5 forecast errors relate to each other.

    I've posted a snapshot (JPG file) of the Excel forecast errors at the following site:
    http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/143/ ... orsxi9.jpg

    My questions:
    1. Just looking at the forecast errors, which underlying forecast method (moving average, simple exp. smoothing, Holt's, Winter's) seems to be the most efficient one?
    2. Is there really one method that is better than all others? Or, based on the errors, does each method have some advantages and disadvantages?

    Thanks so much in advance!

    odumath

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by odumath
    does each method have some advantages and disadvantages?
    This is rather a "red flag" question. Hint: Would the various methods exist, or be worth studying, if one was always clearly superior?

  3. #3
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    tkhunny,

    ok... I didn't phrase the question properly. I studied the whole weekend working on the Excel spreadsheet calculating the errors.

    So, let me try again. "WHAT are the advantages/disadvantages for each method?"

    odumath

  4. #4
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    That is an "essay" question, requiring a researched essay answer.

    To learn the material needed to provide that answer, please do a Google search - go to the library - talk to the teacher - etc....
    “... mathematics is only the art of saying the same thing in different words” - B. Russell

  5. #5
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    Wow... we got a bunch of "smart a..es" here.

    Thanks for all the valuable replies. I won't use this forum any longer. 8(

  6. #6
    Elite Member stapel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by odumath
    Wow... we got a bunch of "smart a..es" here.

    Thanks for all the valuable replies. I won't use this forum any longer. 8(
    It is to be regretted if you were under the impression that the tutors here offered research, analysis, and/or writing services here. But I'm afraid the tutoring forum is only that: a tutoring forum. Sorry!

    To clarify: The volunteers can help students work through specific difficulties, but I'm afraid we simply aren't able here to teach courses, provide research papers, or lead students through lengthy philosophical discussions -- such as "discuss the various uses, strengths, and weaknesses of each of the listed methods", as you had requested.

    I apologize for your confusion, for not having explained things to you earlier, and for the resultant anguish that this misunderstanding has (inadvertantly) caused you. Please know that we all wish you well in your research!

    Eliz.

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