hallewiblen
New member
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2021
- Messages
- 3
Hello,
I am currently trying to figure out the different probabilities of winning in an activity I completed.
There are four cups with one cup having money underneath it. If four people chose a cup, one after another, what is the probability that each person would choose the cup with the money underneath it.
For example, if person 1 does not select the right cup, then person 2 will select another cup, and if person 2 selects the right cup, the activity is over.
I believe that each person has an equal chance to win (25%).
My logic of this is:
Thank you!
I am currently trying to figure out the different probabilities of winning in an activity I completed.
There are four cups with one cup having money underneath it. If four people chose a cup, one after another, what is the probability that each person would choose the cup with the money underneath it.
For example, if person 1 does not select the right cup, then person 2 will select another cup, and if person 2 selects the right cup, the activity is over.
I believe that each person has an equal chance to win (25%).
My logic of this is:
- Person 1 has a 1/4 chance of winning.
- Person 2 then has a 1/4 chance of winning as that is the product of person 1's chance of losing (3/4) and person 2's chance of choosing the right cup (1/3).
- Person 3 then has a 1/4 chance of winning as that is the product of person 1's chance of losing (3/4) and person 2's chance of losing (2/3) and person 3's chance of choosing the right cup (1/2).
- Person 4 then has a 1/4 chance of winning as that is the product of person 1's chance of losing (3/4) and person 2's chance of losing (2/3) and person 3's chance of losing (1/2) and person 4's chance of choosing the right cup (1).
Thank you!