Probability of human genome, random perfect placement of 3.2 million bases ATGC.

DNA

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Calculating probability of human genome by chance.
3,200,000 events each event has 1 in 4 possibilities (ATGC)
1st = 1:4=.25

2nd = 1:4= .25
so far 2 events = .0625
3,199,998 to go

thanks so much for your help. Blessings
 
Calculating probability of human genome by chance.
3,200,000 events each event has 1 in 4 possibilities (ATGC)
1st = 1:4=.25

2nd = 1:4= .25
so far 2 events = .0625
3,199,998 to go

thanks so much for your help. Blessings
 
Human genome probability by chance?

3,200,000 events

each event has a one in four of being correct.

there are 3.2 million base pairs of DNA in human cells, each base ATGC must be in exact order.

Thus: 1/4x1/4x1/4x 1/4...... 3.2million times.

Blessings for your help.
 
Probability = (number of desired outcomes)/(number of possible outcomes)

Assumptions:

- I'm assuming the human genome has an exact sequence of the 3.2 million base pairs that does not vary from individual to individual

Therefore number of desired outcomes = 1

- I'm assuming that since A always pairs with T and C always pairs with G, you only need to know one partner in the pair, at each position in the sequence, in order to uniquely determine the sequence of pairs.

Therefore the number of possible outcomes is just the number of ways of choosing 3.2 million bases out of a set of four, with repetition allowed, and where the ordering matters.

For each position in the sequence, there are 4 possibilities. For each of those possibilities, there are 4 possibilities for what to put in the second position. Therefore there are 4*4 = 42 possibilities for the first two bases in the sequence. There are 4*4*4 = 43 possibilities for the first three bases, and 44 possibilities for the set of the first four bases in the sequence. Et cetera.

So it would seem that the number of possible outcomes for the whole sequence is 4(3 200 000), and the probability is 1 over that. I think this is an impossibly big number to compute.
 
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Calculating probability of human genome by chance.
3,200,000 events each event has 1 in 4 possibilities (ATGC)
1st = 1:4=.25

2nd = 1:4= .25
so far 2 events = .0625
3,199,998 to go

Unfortunately, your question doesn't really mean much as it stands.

First, there isn't just one human genome -- there are 7 billion sets of chromosomes that are all different, and all human. You'd have to define what constitutes "a human genome", and I'm not sure that's possible.

Second, you have to specify what you mean by "chance": what probability distribution makes sense? No one in the world imagines that bases randomly come together to form a set of chromosomes, so an assumption that each possible genome is equally likely (a uniform distribution) doesn't fit any model.

Ultimately, if you're talking about the probability that our genome would evolve, you have to dig a lot deeper than this, looking at mechanisms, time scales, how genes function, and so on. There are arguments to be made; but any direct answer to your question doesn't really mean anything. And that's still true if you are just asking a random question: probability requires a context to determine the applicable distribution.
 
1st = 1:4=.25
I don't agree with 1:4=.25
1:4 means that for every 1 of say type A, there is 4 of say type B. So the probability of type A is NOT 1/4 (also read as 1 in 4) but rather it is 1/5 (1 in 5). Again, for every 5, 1 is of type A and 4 are of type B.

In general for a:b, the probability of A is a/(a+b), NOT a/b. Just think about the fact that a/b could be larger than 1 (and if it isn't then look at b/a)!!
 
I suspect the OP is:

............NOT trying to pose a math problem

............trying to convince us that there exist some Supreme Designer/s!!!
 
I suspect the OP is:

............NOT trying to pose a math problem

............trying to convince us that there exist some Supreme Designer/s!!!


Sir,, my intent is not to convince any person of a creator. That is personal, your choice. To prove my point my best friend 30 years and going, well the first decade my friend was atheist. Did not matter to me at all. He did change his mind, converted but I still don’t know why.

if I wanted to convert folks I would go into the chemistry, the very atoms and molecules in which I am well trained. That would be beyond the scope of this thread.

To be skeptical of one on the web is very wise. I hope you will see my honesty.
I always end post with Blessings, in this case I will say CHEERS.

4 to the 3,200,000 power is what I wanted to know. Thanks so much Buddy.
 
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