10% chance of occuring, can happen 3 times... what % it will happen once?

bbbbbbb40

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Feb 3, 2012
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I am working on a big project that hinges on a basic issue of probability. Say you have an event, like being hit by lightning, that has a 10% chance of happening every day. After three days, what are the chances you will be hit by lightning at least once?

1) I'm sure it's not additive, not 30%.

2) Since it's not a 50% chance, I'm fairly sure it's not like dice (1 minus (1/2 to the n power))

I would appreciate any help on this,
Thanks
Stan
 
1 minus the probability you do not get hit. Assuming the lightning strikes are random and independent of each other, the probability one does not get stricken in 3 days is (0.9)^3.
 
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