Calculation Help

kvic

New member
Joined
Feb 23, 2012
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4
123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960Countaverage weight over 60 periods
11111111111111115151515151514

I have an interface that shows 60 periods, when the item is selected a 1 appears on that period.
If you group by periods of 10 then I assume the tread seems very uneven or seasonally but these items are not affected by seasons.

I have shown a count at the end for the sum of selections and then a array of counts or weighting over the sixty periods by 6.

The selected period at 60 will fall off screen at the next period change by decreasing the count by 1 and then the average weight periods will display something like 14 15 15 15 15 15 Unless
a new selection appears at period one or any period there after at one

What I would like is a algorithm that predicts if the item has a continuing trend or a failed trend and possible the count for the next future 10 periods

I am not good at maths and my health is poor so this is beyond my ability so you help would be appreciated
 
It may help if you suggested just what it is you are doing.

What is the pattern or probability or rule for selecting the first item when it appears?
 
The data comes from a database.

We don’t know when an item will be selected; the index numbers are weeks or 1 to 60 weeks
The item No 1 is the item being sold as we only keep 1 in stock and will take a week to replace stock.

We are data mining the database and the data is displayed and name by what we set with a SQL Query

We are trying to determine what stock numbers and frequency we will need in the future to improve sales and delivery times for slow items

At present we my loose a sale on demand.

A one appears for the week in a 60 week period from current to 60 weeks, we have periods longer than 60 weeks we just chose to use 60 weeks
 
What do you know of queueing theory? There is a rich collection of mathematics to handle such problems.

You have a single server model with Binomial Input and maybe Exponential times between deliveries.

Where does that leave us?
 
Never heard of it but I did some googling and found many variations but short on description.

Do you have some links for examples
 
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