World Series probabilities

M

mrcart

New member
Joined
Oct 26, 2012
Messages
2
How would one calculate the probabilities of either the Giants or the Tigers winning the necessary four games, of seven possible, to win the World Series given:

1.) Each team has a 50% chance of winning each game and,

2.) The Giants have already won the first two games played in the series which could extend to seven games?

I know that somehow the 50% chance per game is to be multiplied by the number of games yet to be won(?) or yet to be played(?) but I cannot get anything that seems to include both.

By the way, this is not for homework or any school assignment. Merely the result of my wife and I talking about the question after the end of the second game last evening (October 25). If that makes this inappropriate or unanswerable in this forum, I apologize.
 
Last edited:
mrcart said:
How would one calculate the probabilities of either the Giants or the Tigers winning the necessary four games, of seven possible, to win the World Series given:

1.) Each team has a 50% chance of winning each game and,

2.) The Giants have already won the first two games played in the series which could extend to seven games?
Click to expand...

Please read the post titled "Read before Posting".

We can help - we only help after you have shown your work - or ask a specific question (not a statement like "Don't know any of these")

Please share your work with us indicating exactly where you are stuck - so that we may know where to begin to help you.
 
mrcart said:
How would one calculate the probabilities of either the Giants or the Tigers winning the necessary four games, of seven possible, to win the World Series given:
1.) Each team has a 50% chance of winning each game and,
2.) The Giants have already won the first two games played in the series which could extend to seven games?
I know that somehow the 50% chance per game is to be multiplied by the number of games yet to be won(?) or yet to be played(?) but I cannot get anything that seems to include both.
Click to expand...
This is a well know problem. See this webpage.
At first, it may appear not to be the same but it is.
There could be five more games.
Say they play all five regardless of who wins which.
There are 32 possible outcomes.
In 26 of those the Giants will be the first to win four games total.

But do look at that webpage. It may be that is the start of modern probability theory.
 
Thanks for the pointer, PKA

I appreciated you taking the time to read and respond to my question. It is a treat, for one who is not a mathematician, to see the problem in the light you referred to. I especially was enlightened in seeing how the five remaining games have 32 possible outcomes (I'd have said 10 outcomes).

~~~~Bob
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top