Table tennis who-goes-first choice

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TheStormex

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Hi I'm new. I play table tennis (ping pong) and I have a question about the probability of who goes first (make the first service).

For people who don't know or are unfamiliar with the idea of who goes first in a table tennis match, it is basically this:

One person put the ball in one the hands and hide under the table, the other person must guess the ball is in which hand. If the guess was correct, that person gets the ball; if incorrect, the person holding the ball serves first.

What I want to know is what is the more probable way that I get the ball first? I hide the ball and let my opponent choose or I pick my opponent's ball.
It might look simple that it is just 1/2 chance either way, but after visiting this site that gives facts that are shocking about math:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-controversial-math-problems-2013-3

I start to doubt if it really is that simple (1/2 chance either way)
If anyone can help me, it will be great! Thanks!
 
TheStormex said:
Hi I'm new. I play table tennis (ping pong) and I have a question about the probability of who goes first (make the first service).

For people who don't know or are unfamiliar with the idea of who goes first in a table tennis match, it is basically this:

One person put the ball in one the hands and hide under the table, the other person must guess the ball is in which hand. If the guess was correct, that person gets the ball; if incorrect, the person holding the ball serves first.

What I want to know is what is the more probable way that I get the ball first? I hide the ball and let my opponent choose or I pick my opponent's ball.
It might look simple that it is just 1/2 chance either way, but after visiting this site that gives facts that are shocking about math:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-controversial-math-problems-2013-3

I start to doubt if it really is that simple (1/2 chance either way)
If anyone can help me, it will be great! Thanks!
Click to expand...

It is 1/2 either way - unless you have some special knowledge (a priory)

In case of Monty Hall game the first guess - provides you a priory knowledge and skews the probability.

In your case, there is only one guess - no a priory knowledge - so no skewed probability. Probability remains 1/2.
 
stapel said:
I'm not sure what you mean by "shocking"...? Please specify which of the seventy-four slides at the link leads you to believe that there would be some other than 1/2 chance of your opponent guessing the correct hand. Thank you! ;)
Click to expand...

Slide n. 65-72
Slide n.1-10

Those are the ratter shocking ones. Especially the ones of slide n.65-72 I still haven't figured it out the reason of that.
 
I'm still convinced that it is 1/2. There is one ball, and 2 options to go with. I'm not sure how you can get a different answer, because its basically-2 options-1 correct-1 wrong. Therefore, there is 1 Right and one wrong. And there are 2 options.
 
Yes, it obviously is 1/2. A nothing in the site linked to suggests otherwise.

By the way, Subhotosh, the phrase you want is "a priori" ("from the first"). "A priory" is a religious order run by a "prior".
 
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