Probability calculation

Surraj · Oct 31, 2013

A company has a hiring rule that at least 3 out of 4 employed are the native citizens of their country. What is the probability for a foreigner to be hired in that particular firm?

I know the probability of a native citizen to be hired is 75% to 100%. Which cannot be determined exactly since all 4 out of 4 can also be the native citizens. In a way we can tell that the probability of a foreigner to be hired is between 25% to zero(if all are native citizens). Is there a way to get to an answer?

DrPhil · Oct 31, 2013

Surraj said:
A company has a hiring rule that at least 3 out of 4 employed are the native citizens of their country. What is the probability for a foreigner to be hired in that particular firm?

I know the probability of a native citizen to be hired is 75% to 100%. Which cannot be determined exactly since all 4 out of 4 can also be the native citizens. In a way we can tell that the probability of a foreigner to be hired is between 25% to zero(if all are native citizens). Is there a way to get to an answer?

There is a model of probability called "maximum entropy" which allows you to hide all of your ignorance by starting with all states being equally probable. In this case your statement that the probability is between 0 and 25% becomes something like this: "In the absence of any further information, the least-likely-to-be-wrong assumption says the probability distribution is uniform between 0 and 25%, with mean 12.5%."

Probability calculation

Surraj

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DrPhil

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