Greetings,
I'm not a math buff and Google has failed to help me find a mathematical formula. I'm hoping someone here can help me out or point me in the right direction.
I'm trying to determine how to calculate the probability of something happening. The scenario is this... I'm playing a game and one of my characters has a 20% chance of his skill working. If he attempted the skill twice, what is the actual percent chance of the skill working at least once? I realize it's greater than 20% because he's attempted it twice, but I'd like to know how to calculate it specifically.
One more twist... If there are diminishing returns on this skill working, would that be a different formula? For example, the first two attempts at using the skill his chance is 20%, then the third attempt the chance of success is reduced to 10% and on the fourth and final attempt he only has a 5% chance.
So, to summarize:
What is the chance of an event happening at least once in two attempts if each attempt only has a 20% chance of success?
What is the chance of an event happening at least once in four attempts if the first two attempts have a 20% chance of success, the third attempt has a 10% chance and the fourth and final attempt has a 5% chance of success.
Thank you very much for any insights you can provide (I've been trying to find this for days now, so you're my last hope of not going crazy trying to answer this...)
Be well.
I'm not a math buff and Google has failed to help me find a mathematical formula. I'm hoping someone here can help me out or point me in the right direction.
I'm trying to determine how to calculate the probability of something happening. The scenario is this... I'm playing a game and one of my characters has a 20% chance of his skill working. If he attempted the skill twice, what is the actual percent chance of the skill working at least once? I realize it's greater than 20% because he's attempted it twice, but I'd like to know how to calculate it specifically.
One more twist... If there are diminishing returns on this skill working, would that be a different formula? For example, the first two attempts at using the skill his chance is 20%, then the third attempt the chance of success is reduced to 10% and on the fourth and final attempt he only has a 5% chance.
So, to summarize:
What is the chance of an event happening at least once in two attempts if each attempt only has a 20% chance of success?
What is the chance of an event happening at least once in four attempts if the first two attempts have a 20% chance of success, the third attempt has a 10% chance and the fourth and final attempt has a 5% chance of success.
Thank you very much for any insights you can provide (I've been trying to find this for days now, so you're my last hope of not going crazy trying to answer this...)
Be well.