Hello,
This has been floating around the net for a while and I also have a similar problem now at work, only it involves more possible outcomes.
Here is the basic problem and my sollution. I just need confirmation that my thought process is correct.
You have a question with four answers which asks what is the probability that if you pick an answer at random, the answer will be correct.
A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 60%
D) 25%
This is the way I solve this:
At first I disregard what the actual answers are. I know there are three possible answers, but one appears twice. In that case, out of four possibilities, not knowing what the correct answer is -> I will pick the correct answer 1/4 times if it appears once, or 2/4 times if it appears twice. I then simply averaged that out:
(1/4 + 1/4 + 2/4)/3 = 1/3
Since 1/3 does not appear in the answer set, the question is a paradox.
Is my logic correct?
Thanks,
Chris
This has been floating around the net for a while and I also have a similar problem now at work, only it involves more possible outcomes.
Here is the basic problem and my sollution. I just need confirmation that my thought process is correct.
You have a question with four answers which asks what is the probability that if you pick an answer at random, the answer will be correct.
A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 60%
D) 25%
This is the way I solve this:
At first I disregard what the actual answers are. I know there are three possible answers, but one appears twice. In that case, out of four possibilities, not knowing what the correct answer is -> I will pick the correct answer 1/4 times if it appears once, or 2/4 times if it appears twice. I then simply averaged that out:
(1/4 + 1/4 + 2/4)/3 = 1/3
Since 1/3 does not appear in the answer set, the question is a paradox.
Is my logic correct?
Thanks,
Chris