Expectation and variance

Baron

Junior Member
Joined
Oct 3, 2010
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Jack and Jill independently arrange the digits 1 to 9 in any order and compare the resulting numbers digit by digit. Let X denote the number of digits in agreement.

For example, if the numbers were 132456789 and 142567893, X = 2 as the first and third digits are the same.

Find E[X] and Var[X]

My work:

I'm having difficulty figuring out the distribution of X. I thought X might be negative binomial distributed with X ~ NBin (n, 1/9). Only problem with this is that the 1/9 changes depending on whether the previous digit was a success or failure. I think it might be negative binomial involving some summations but I don't know what

Then I tried by brute force, I know there are 9! different ways to arrange the numbers 1 to 9 but I really don't want to calculate the P(X) = 0,1,2 and so forth. Is there an easier way to do this question?

And even if I find the expectation, I have no idea how to find E[X]^2 to find the variance.
 
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