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bhuvaneshnick

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question :the probability that a man who is x years old will die in a year is P. Then amongst n persons a1,a2,a3....an each x years old now , the probability that ,a1 will die in one year
solution
1)probability no one die (1-p)(1-p)..n so (1-p)^n
2)probability atleast one die 1-(1-p)^n
3)probability of a1 dies is (1-(1-p)^n)/n
i understand first two steps ,but not the third step.How dividing by n makes the solution
 
Note that the P is equivalent to the fraction of men who are X years old that will die that year, not the probability for a particular individual who is X years old. If one of the group is 'something', what is the chance of choosing that particular one out of a group of n individuals assuming equal probability for all individuals. Now what if that 'something' has a particular probability of happening. What is the probability of that something happening to that particular individual if those two events are independent.
 
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Ishuda said:
Actually the P is equivalent to the fraction of men who are X years old that will die that year, not the probability for a particular individual who is X years old. If one of the group is 'something', what is the chance of choosing that particular one out of a group of n individuals assuming equal probability for all individuals. Now what if that 'something' has a particular probability of happening. What is the probability of that something happening to that particular individual if those two events are independent.
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it is being possible only because of equal probability isn't it?
 
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