Just Plain Old
New member
- Joined
- Aug 23, 2015
- Messages
- 2
Hello all, thank you in advance for your help!
Probabilty was never a strong subject for me and it was over 30 years ago so here I am looking for help.
Recently I have started playing horseshoes, the object of which is to throw a horseshoe at a metal pin 40 feet away and get it to hook on - a ringer.
Now my experimental probabilty over a long term (200 attempts) is roughly 5%. OK, I am not good -yet.
When I practice I will throw 4 shoes in each inning. I have observed, and logic dictates, that I am most likely to get, with greatly decreasing probability, the following:
1 - no ringers and none close
2 - no ringers but close
3 - 1 ringer and none close
4- 1 ringer and some close
5 - 2 ringers and none close
And there it ends. I rarely get 2 ringers and some close and have never thrown 3 of the 4 for ringers.
So my question: Given my 5% chance of throwing a ringer and throwing 4 shoes per inning, how many innings, in theory, would I need to throw to get 3 of 4 as ringers?
I know this is more than a simple probabilty question and that is where my old brain fails me.
Clearly getting better would increase my chnces but still, how do I figure it?
Thanks for your thoughts and theories.
Probabilty was never a strong subject for me and it was over 30 years ago so here I am looking for help.
Recently I have started playing horseshoes, the object of which is to throw a horseshoe at a metal pin 40 feet away and get it to hook on - a ringer.
Now my experimental probabilty over a long term (200 attempts) is roughly 5%. OK, I am not good -yet.
When I practice I will throw 4 shoes in each inning. I have observed, and logic dictates, that I am most likely to get, with greatly decreasing probability, the following:
1 - no ringers and none close
2 - no ringers but close
3 - 1 ringer and none close
4- 1 ringer and some close
5 - 2 ringers and none close
And there it ends. I rarely get 2 ringers and some close and have never thrown 3 of the 4 for ringers.
So my question: Given my 5% chance of throwing a ringer and throwing 4 shoes per inning, how many innings, in theory, would I need to throw to get 3 of 4 as ringers?
I know this is more than a simple probabilty question and that is where my old brain fails me.
Clearly getting better would increase my chnces but still, how do I figure it?
Thanks for your thoughts and theories.