Reliability Questions

WETHAM47

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Oct 23, 2015
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Following the IE "dust explosion" fire may or may not break out.
Dust exposition on the average will occur once every 1000 years.
The probability of the fire break out is 0.8.
Sprinkler system is installed, may or may not function.
Probability that sprinkler system works 0.99 and fire alarm activates is 0.99

Determine the likelihood of the following per annum-

  1. Controlled fire with alarm (both sprinkler and alarm system)
  2. Control fire with no alarm (only sprinkler)
  3. Uncontrolled fire with alarm (only alarm activates)
  4. Uncontrolled fire with no alarm (neither sprinkler system or fire alarm)
  5. No fire

This can be an event tree analysis...please help

 
Following the IE "dust explosion" fire may or may not break out.
Dust exposition on the average will occur once every 1000 years.
The probability of the fire break out is 0.8.
Sprinkler system is installed, may or may not function.
Probability that sprinkler system works 0.99 and fire alarm activates is 0.99

Determine the likelihood of the following per annum-

  1. Controlled fire with alarm (both sprinkler and alarm system)
  2. Control fire with no alarm (only sprinkler)
  3. Uncontrolled fire with alarm (only alarm activates)
  4. Uncontrolled fire with no alarm (neither sprinkler system or fire alarm)
  5. No fire

This can be an event tree analysis...please help
What are your thoughts?

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