Working out stats for number of extra deaths for men v women.

Mike AMRA

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I would love for someone to help me with this.
According to wickipedia there are 1.07 men born for every 1 woman on planet earth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_sex_ratio
The current average gender ratio on earth is 1.01.


Out of a planet population of over 7 billion I am attempting to work out how many more men have died in total & per year in order to achieve the current gender ratio? (mainly yearly as the total number seems to be 210,000,000 (7,000,000,000 x 0.06 / 2) which should probably be divided by the average age of someone on the planet (around 30) Which would give 7 million per year (roughly).


This ignores the increase in population but I am not sure if that will give a larger or smaller number if you factor that into the equation plus I need to work this out.


Also the WHO states there are 5.8 million deaths worldwide due to accidents & violence with men being almost twice as likely to be killed. Injuries and WHO http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/key_facts/en/
That means around 1.9 million women, 3.9 million men. With a 2 million excess.

So ROUGHLY 28% of those 7 million deaths are as a result of men dying at work, dying due to war/conscription, other forms of violence.
(I understand that besides injury & violence there are a huge number of other factors like suicide, exposure to toxic chemicals, discrimination in healthcare & cancer spending etc.) This is a very crude estimate and fails to account for population expansion.


Now here is the issue, 30 years ago in 1985 the worlds population was 4,863,601,517 So lets say an average of 5.9 billion between the 2 numbers.

How do I work out the current, and historical excess rate of death in millions for men factoring in population expansion over 30 years and will this have any effect on the % rate of death for violence and accidents?
 
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How do I work out the current, and historical excess rate of death in millions for men factoring in population expansion over 30 years and will this have any effect on the % rate of death for violence and accidents?

There are many ways but all involve assumptions (or data). For example if you assume an actual and effective birth rate (since people die the actual rate is greater than the effective rate if the population is to increase), a ratio of men to women in the total population, and a ratio of men to women born, then the numbers will fall out. You can assume these on a yearly basis or let them be constant over the years.

Pulling some numbers 'out of the air', if we let the values be constant over the years and
actual birth rate (ratio) = 1.03
effective birth rate (% increase) = 2%
a constant ratio of men to women = 1.01
a ratio of men to women born = 1.07
Then the ratio of men to women who die during the year is about 1.20 and the death rate is 1% of the population.
 
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