More advanced question about tennis

Jonii

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Joined
Feb 5, 2016
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Hi,

So first of all im not 100% sure if this is the correct place to post this because this is a bit advanced.

Anyway lets get to the point. Im looking to create model by which I can use to calculate projected hold for tennis server to hold his/hers serve. My knowledge is more in the tennis itself than the mathematics so help and opinions would be much appreciated.

I have thought alot of what statistics should be considered and if some of the statistics should be weighted a little bit more to give more accurate projected hold figure. Here are some of the statistics which I consider to be most important when making the formula for the projected hold. Statistics to take in to the calculations: average player serve hold%, opponent average service breaking % and the average court hold %. I understand that most of these dont mean anything to person who isnt in to tennis. So let me give some stats for if someone decides to give their opinion or even start to creating some kind of a formula with me. These stats are totally made up but they are close to real statistics. Average player hold = 74%, opponent average serve breaking = 21%, average court hold = 78% and I this average court hold should be some how in mathematically smart way to be compared to ATP(mens tennis circuit) average surface hold %. I dont think that any of these statistics should be weighted, not at least at this point anyway.
 
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