Airport Security Checkpoint Prob: If 1 in 40 checked, 32 ahead of you in line, then w

Nagato

New member
Joined
Jun 18, 2016
Messages
1
Hello, I'm quite confused on how to do this problem. Can someone please explain, at least, the type of equation I am supposed to use?
Thank you.

Suppose that at an airport security checkpoint, 1 in 40 people are randomly selected for a search.
If there are 32 people ahead of you in line, what is the probability that you will be the first one randomly selected to be searched?
 
Well, the way I'd approach it is to use a bit of a systematic approach. For simplicity's sake, we can assume that each of the 33 people (including yourself) has an equal 1 in 40 chance of being searched, although this likely will not be the case in a real-world scenario. Let's go through the first few people and see if there's a pattern: We know that the first person has a 1 in 40 chance of being searched. So what's the chance he won't be searched? And if the first person is not searched, that means the next person in line has a 1 in 40 chance of being searched. From this information, can you determine the chance that he will be the first one searched? And what is the chance that neither of the first two people will be searched? Then, factoring in the 1 in 40 chance of person 3 being searched, what is the chance that h will be the first one searched? Are you seeing a pattern? If you use that pattern, what is the chance that you, the 33rd person in line, will be the first one searched?

As a hint, you might consider an ordinary deck of cards. The chance of drawing a Jack is 1 in 13. And the chance of drawing a Spade is 1 in 4. So, what's the chance of drawing the Jack of Spades?
 
Top