Probability question regaring the Suprreme Court

Will Jones

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Before Justice Scalia died there were 6 Catholics on the Supreme Court and 3 Jews. My question is: What is the probability of that happening by chance? Here is my (pathetic) attempt to answer the question so please correct me if I am wrong.

1. Assume that Catholics account for one in four of the public and the Jews for one in fifty of the public.

2. Therefore, having one Catholic on the court at any one time has a probability of 1:4. Having one Jew has a probability of 1:50.

3. Having 6 Catholics on the court at the same time therefore has a probability of 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 X1/4 or 1: 4096.

4. Having three Jews on the court at the same time has a probability of 1/50 x 1/50 x1/50 or 1: 125,000.


Is this a correct calculation? Is multiplying the individual probabilities correct. Do we add the two total probabilities to get the grand total?
In the case of the Jewish justices, is this the equivalent of spinning three roulette wheels at the same time, each wheel with 50 numbered slots, and having all the three of the balls land on the same number? My mind is shot lol. Any help or correction will be appreciated. WJ
 
Before Justice Scalia died there were 6 Catholics on the Supreme Court and 3 Jews. My question is: What is the probability of that happening by chance?
1. Assume that Catholics account for one in four of the public and the Jews for one in fifty of the public.

2. Therefore, having one Catholic on the court at any one time has a probability of 1:4. Having one Jew has a probability of 1:50.

3. Having 6 Catholics on the court at the same time therefore has a probability of 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 X1/4 or 1: 4096.

4. Having three Jews on the court at the same time has a probability of 1/50 x 1/50 x1/50 or 1: 125,000.

This question has absolutely no answer. Here are the reasons. There is no partition of the general population into Jews, Catholics, and others. For the greatest part of the court’s history the majority of members were Episcopalians many of which consider themselves the true catholics. So the question should say ‘Roman Catholic’. How do you count a person a Jew? Do you mean a practicing Jew or an ethnic Jew? To be an ethnic Jew, one’s mother must be Jewish. I fit all three of those categories. So how would you count me? The point is your question has no answer in 2016 USA.
 
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