Stuck with a probability question???

tantrik

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Sep 18, 2016
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Dear friends,


I'm unable to solve the following probability question. Please help me solve it. Thanks in advance. The answer given in the book is: 5/9 [for part (b)]. Don't know even if the answer is correct.


Suzi has taken up golf, and she buys a golf bag containing five different clubs. Unfortunately she does not know when to use each club, and so chooses them randomly for each shot. The probabilities for each shot that Suzi makes are shown below:

Right club
--------------
Good shot - 2/3
Bad shot - 1/3

Wrong club
-----------------
Good shot - 1/4
Bad shot - 3/4

a) Use the above information to construct a tree diagram.
b) At one short hole, she can reach the green in one shot if it is 'good'. If her first shot is 'bad', it takes one more 'good' shot to reach the green. Find the probability that she reaches the green in at most two shots.

I drew the tree diagram given below. Don't know whether it is correct or not. Problem is what would be the P(right club) and P(wrong club) values. Still I don't know which outcomes should I take for finding the solution to part (b). Let me know what to do next.

attachment.php
 

Attachments

  • Tree diagram for part (a).jpg
    Tree diagram for part (a).jpg
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I admit I don't know much about golf (actually I know next to nothing), but it would seem logical to assume that, for any given shot, there's only one club that's the right one. The problem states that Suzi has five golf clubs in her bag, and "chooses randomly for each shot." So, if she picks a random club from a bag containing 5 clubs, what's the probability she'll draw the correct one? Then your tree diagram will supply you with all the other information needed to solve part b​.
 
I admit I don't know much about golf (actually I know next to nothing), but it would seem logical to assume that, for any given shot, there's only one club that's the right one. The problem states that Suzi has five golf clubs in her bag, and "chooses randomly for each shot." So, if she picks a random club from a bag containing 5 clubs, what's the probability she'll draw the correct one? Then your tree diagram will supply you with all the other information needed to solve part b​.

Thanks for the suggestion. It helped solving the problem.:D
 
I admit I don't know much about golf (actually I know next to nothing), but it would seem logical to assume that, for any given shot, there's only one club that's the right one. The problem states that Suzi has five golf clubs in her bag, and "chooses randomly for each shot." So, if she picks a random club from a bag containing 5 clubs, what's the probability she'll draw the correct one? Then your tree diagram will supply you with all the other information needed to solve part b​.

Thanks for your suggestion. I could solve the problem.
 
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