Non-mathematician needs help calculating hand ranks in a card game

Thos

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Nov 3, 2016
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Hello. I'm in the process of producing a card game which features ranks of hands, as in poker. However it features a non-standard deck of three suits, and cards ranked 1 to 6. In addition it has a number of 'semi-wild' Leader cards which can represent various multiple numbers or suits. Here is an example of three standard cards, and a 'semi-wild' card:

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The only problem is that I don't have the ability to calculate the odds of each hand appearing, and therefore ranking the hands in order, for three different deck compositions. I have tried so hard to understand the methods, but I don't have the necessary knowledge to do this. I had a friend working on this, but college work has taken over. This is the PDF I discovered that helped him work ranks out on an earlier version of a deck:

http://www.ece.utah.edu/eceCTools/Probability/Combinatorics/ProbCombEx15.pdf

These are the hand ranks he calculated for the earlier deck:

< link to objectionable page removed >

The icons represent each three card hand - dots at the bottom represent 'matching suit'. All the hands match poker hands with the exception of Brotherhood and Cabal, which feature identical cards.

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I'll explain the rules very roughly:


  • Each player (2-4) has a deck of cards.
  • They each take three cards.
  • There is a round of betting.
  • All players have the option to pass a card to their left (or switch it with one from their deck), twice.
  • There is a second round of betting.
  • Hands are compared.

Betting is carried out with cards from your deck, so play lasts until one player wins everyone elses' cards.

There is a bit more to it than this - in addition a lot of the cards have game changing 'Orders' on them that you can play/issue, like 'discard a knight and draw a new card' etc. I don't want to consider them in the odds, as there isn't a specific number value you can apply to them.

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Here is a spreadsheet with the different decks in the game - there are four decks, but only three sets of ranks needed:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CTExXWGZLYueetPCwBJC8Tj3RYhp3KhPZFQbZqeU2Ns/edit?usp=sharing

The sheet shows the suits and numbers, and how many cards feature that value. There are different games based on different deck configurations. These different decks are listed in red on the left. There are spaces on the right to add hand ranks, and odds for each hand. Feel free to duplicate the sheet, or add calculations on the sheet. If anything is unclear, please PM me and I'll answer any questions.

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Something to note is a paradox my friend discovered with the hands:

The bottom two hands are called 'Rabble' and 'Pair'. If you use the wild cards to make a pair, it becomes more likely than a rabble, moving rabble up a place in the rankings. But then, if you use wild cards to make a rabble, the pair becomes more likely.

We resolved this by just making rabble the lowest hand in the rankings, even though a pair is more likely.

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I'm planning on self-producing the game using a print-on-demand production company, so if anyone can do this for me, I would be hugely grateful; you can have a credit in the game and I will gladly reward you with a copy of the game if it finally makes it to production.
 
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