Expected probability: "According to the Almanac of Questionable Statistics, Vol 5..."

madj

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Expected probability: "According to the Almanac of Questionable Statistics, Vol 5..."

According to the Almanac of Questionable Statistics, Vol 5 (2001), the probability of a mass sponge migration in 2020 is 0.17, the probability of a toaster dancing to Jackie Wilson's "(Your Love Has Lifted Me) Higher and Higher" in 2021 is 0.85, but the probability of a toaster dancing to Jackie Wilson's "(Your Love Has Lifted Me) Higher and Higher" in 2021 given that a mass sponge migration already occurred in 2020 is 0.49. What is the probability that a mass sponge migration occurs in 2020 and a toaster dances to Jackie Wilson's "(Your Love Has Lifted Me) Higher and Higher" in 2021?

My instructor said that the answer to this is 0.0833, I was so lost at her explanation, can anymore explain how she got this answer?
 
According to the Almanac of Questionable Statistics, Vol 5 (2001), the probability of a mass sponge migration in 2020 is 0.17, the probability of a toaster dancing to Jackie Wilson's "(Your Love Has Lifted Me) Higher and Higher" in 2021 is 0.85, but the probability of a toaster dancing to Jackie Wilson's "(Your Love Has Lifted Me) Higher and Higher" in 2021 given that a mass sponge migration already occurred in 2020 is 0.49. What is the probability that a mass sponge migration occurs in 2020 and a toaster dances to Jackie Wilson's "(Your Love Has Lifted Me) Higher and Higher" in 2021?

My instructor said that the answer to this is 0.0833, I was so lost at her explanation, can anymore explain how she got this answer?
Simple, she made a mistake.

How did you do this problem? Please show us your work.
 
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