Probability prediction (that investment will go bankrupt in the next year)

Hi. I want to know which method to use for calculating the probability of my investment to end in bankruptcy within next year based only on previous data (every week in previous 5 years balance was refreshed)

Wow! We need only 472 different pieces of data to do that.

Where are you on this? What have you tried? What class has compelled you to do this?

Areola said:

Hi. I want to know which method to use for calculating the probability of my investment to end in bankruptcy within next year based only on previous data (every week in previous 5 years balance was refreshed)

Click to expand...

Which methods have you covered recently in class? Which do you feel is most likely to be useful here? How far have you gotten in attempting to apply this information?

Please be complete. Thank you!

I complicated whole thing. I just want an idea how to calculate prediction of probability for example:

My poker balance in previous five weeks are:
y1=100
Y2=180
Y3=160
Y4= 220
Y5= 190
Y6=200
...
What are the odds that next balance will be: >
a) < 50
b) = 0
c) >200

What are the odds that in one of next 5 weeks my balance will be 0?

Areola said:

I complicated whole thing. I just want an idea how to calculate prediction of probability for example:

My poker balance in previous five weeks are:
y1=100
Y2=180
Y3=160
Y4= 220
Y5= 190
Y6=200
...
What are the odds that next balance will be: >
a) < 50
b) = 0
c) >200

What are the odds that in one of next 5 weeks my balance will be 0?

Click to expand...

What are the parameters under which you are operating? Are you to assume (for a math problem, because it's not like this in "real life") that the entire environment remains unchanged throughout (so no new players join, no old players leave, the meeting-place for the game is always the same, the level and type of distractions remain the same, etc? Also, what is the rest of your hundreds of points of data? Are you to assume that they represent a normal distribution?

What topics have you covered recently in class? How have you used these tools?

Please be complete. Thank you!

different prediction methods

There are different prediction methods, mobile averages, fibonacci, among others, having that variety sometimes also complicates the prediction procedure