Fantasy baseball league playoff projections.

[AllGravy76]

All right, I am about to show my ignorance in math...

I run a fantasy baseball league. Each week we have a head to head match up with another team that includes 12 different categories of scoring. Meaning your highest win that week can be 12-0-0. Wins/Losses/Ties. We have 4 divisions, 5 teams per divisions for a total of 20 teams, and each division winner makes the playoffs plus 2 wildcard teams. The wild card teams would be the next 2 best records after division winners.

For Example one of our divisions looks like this:

1	Braves	102-58-8
2	Rays	95-67-6
3	Nationals	82-76-10
4	Bluejays	70-85-13
5	Marlins	31-125-12

As of right now the Braves would be the division winners. We are currently in week 15 of a 23 week regular season leaving us with 9 weeks. So if your highest win each week is 12-0-0 that would mean the best possible record left is 108-0-0. So the Marlins the worst team in the division could mathematically finish with a record of 139-125-12 if you add 108 to 31. The chances of that happening are not good at all...

What I am trying to do is just create a fun projected playoff picture for my league. How many more wins/losses/ties you need to either be locked into the playoffs or eliminated. Whether it be for the division win or for one of the 2 wild card spots. That "Magic Number" if you will. I am not sure if I am asking right for what I intend to do, but there must be a formula of some kind I can use for a math fool like me to put into a calculator. It seems like the answer is so simple it is staring me in the face. I am not sure if I am leaving out info for what I intend to do must this has to at least be a start...

Below are the other divisions and records. Not because I am looking for someone to do the work for me, but in order just to paint a picture of what I am talking about and get myself pointed in the right direction.

Thank you very much for your time and any help. It can be fun for other league members when they have something to look at especially for the playoffs and info like this can also give me writing material for the league articles I write. I will leave it at that for now and hope I have come across clear.

1	Cubs	124-39-5
2	Cardinals	93-66-9
3	Brewers	69-85-14
4	Pirates	63-91-14
5	D-Backs	63-95-10

1	White Sox	107-50-11
2	Indians	108-56-4
3	Orioles	84-77-7
4	Tigers	59-97-12
4	Yankees	59-97-12

1	Royals	103-60-5
2	Rangers	98-60-10
3	Athletics	99-64-5
4	Mariners	48-110-10
5	Angels	27-126-15

 

[JeffM]

I am confident that what you want to do can be done, but I am pretty sure that it requires an algorithm rather than a formula. An algorithm is a procedure, a set of steps to do. When you learned in junior high how to solve an equation, you learned an algorithm.

The algorithm required here is likely to be time consuming, at least until close to the end of the season. This is just a sketch. First, compute the maximum and minimum each team can potentially achieve by the end of the season given their current record (this is 40 computations initially). Second, within each division, compare the teams (this is initially 10 comparisons for each league, 40 in all). If any team in a division has a potential minimum higher than the potential maximum of any other team in that division, you have identified a division winner and can stop worrying about that team and that division henceforward. Third, compute the number of possible wild cards (this will be six minus the number of division winners already identified and so will range from 2 through 6). Call that w. Fourth, consider the teams remaining after excluding the division winners (the number remaining will be 20 + w - 6). Compare the maximum potential of each team against the minimum potential of every other team (initially that could be as high as 180 comparisons). Eliminate any team with a maximum potential that is exceeded by the minimum potential of at least w other teams AND of at least 1 team in its division. Those left are potential wild cards or potential division winners and so are potential playoff participants. Fifth, publish the list of division winners and potential playoff participants.

The first time you do this it will be time consuming. If you do it late enough in the season, the first iteration will eliminate a bunch of teams, and further iterations will be much less time consuming. If you know how to program a computer, it may make sense to do it that way (avoids mistakes too).

A bad thing about your design is that some teams may get discouraged and drop out. Consider adding two redemption slots: the two worst teams get included in the playoffs for redemption.

 

[AllGravy76]

I am confident that what you want to do can be done, but I am pretty sure that it requires an algorithm rather than a formula. An algorithm is a procedure, a set of steps to do. When you learned in junior high how to solve an equation, you learned an algorithm.

The algorithm required here is likely to be time consuming, at least until close to the end of the season. This is just a sketch. First, compute the maximum and minimum each team can potentially achieve by the end of the season given their current record (this is 40 computations initially). Second, within each division, compare the teams (this is initially 10 comparisons for each league, 40 in all). If any team in a division has a potential minimum higher than the potential maximum of any other team in that division, you have identified a division winner and can stop worrying about that team and that division henceforward. Third, compute the number of possible wild cards (this will be six minus the number of division winners already identified and so will range from 2 through 6). Call that w. Fourth, consider the teams remaining after excluding the division winners (the number remaining will be 20 + w - 6). Compare the maximum potential of each team against the minimum potential of every other team (initially that could be as high as 180 comparisons). Eliminate any team with a maximum potential that is exceeded by the minimum potential of at least w other teams AND of at least 1 team in its division. Those left are potential wild cards or potential division winners and so are potential playoff participants. Fifth, publish the list of division winners and potential playoff participants.

The first time you do this it will be time consuming. If you do it late enough in the season, the first iteration will eliminate a bunch of teams, and further iterations will be much less time consuming. If you know how to program a computer, it may make sense to do it that way (avoids mistakes too).

A bad thing about your design is that some teams may get discouraged and drop out. Consider adding two redemption slots: the two worst teams get included in the playoffs for redemption.

Thank you, I think I may being trying to due this too early in the season. As far as the two worst teams getting in the playoffs. Their consolation is higher draft picks. This is a dynasty league so they will not drop out