Results 1 to 9 of 9

Thread: Probability prediction (that investment will go bankrupt in the next year)

  1. #1
    New Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Posts
    2

    Probability prediction (that investment will go bankrupt in the next year)

    Hi. I want to know which method to use for calculating the probability of my investment to end in bankruptcy within next year based only on previous data (every week in previous 5 years balance was refreshed)

  2. #2
    Elite Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    8,929
    Wow! We need only 472 different pieces of data to do that.

    Where are you on this? What have you tried? What class has compelled you to do this?
    "Unique Answers Don't Care How You Find Them." - Many may have said it, but I hear it most from me.

  3. #3
    Elite Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Ottawa, Ontario
    Posts
    16,675
    Quote Originally Posted by Areola View Post
    (every week in previous 5 years balance was refreshed)
    Whadda heck does "refresh" mean here?

    ...and: are you serious
    I'm just an imagination of your figment !

  4. #4
    Elite Member stapel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Posts
    15,540

    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by Areola View Post
    Hi. I want to know which method to use for calculating the probability of my investment to end in bankruptcy within next year based only on previous data (every week in previous 5 years balance was refreshed)
    Which methods have you covered recently in class? Which do you feel is most likely to be useful here? How far have you gotten in attempting to apply this information?

    Please be complete. Thank you!

  5. #5
    New Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Posts
    2
    I complicated whole thing. I just want an idea how to calculate prediction of probability for example:

    My poker balance in previous five weeks are:
    y1=100
    Y2=180
    Y3=160
    Y4= 220
    Y5= 190
    Y6=200
    ...
    What are the odds that next balance will be: >
    a) < 50
    b) = 0
    c) >200

    What are the odds that in one of next 5 weeks my balance will be 0?

  6. #6
    Elite Member stapel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Posts
    15,540

    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by Areola View Post
    I complicated whole thing. I just want an idea how to calculate prediction of probability for example:

    My poker balance in previous five weeks are:
    y1=100
    Y2=180
    Y3=160
    Y4= 220
    Y5= 190
    Y6=200
    ...
    What are the odds that next balance will be: >
    a) < 50
    b) = 0
    c) >200

    What are the odds that in one of next 5 weeks my balance will be 0?
    What are the parameters under which you are operating? Are you to assume (for a math problem, because it's not like this in "real life") that the entire environment remains unchanged throughout (so no new players join, no old players leave, the meeting-place for the game is always the same, the level and type of distractions remain the same, etc? Also, what is the rest of your hundreds of points of data? Are you to assume that they represent a normal distribution?

    What topics have you covered recently in class? How have you used these tools?

    Please be complete. Thank you!

  7. #7
    Elite Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Ottawa, Ontario
    Posts
    16,675
    Please ask someone familiar with probabilities
    to help you post a CLEAR problem.

    As is, you're beating around the bush...
    I'm just an imagination of your figment !

  8. #8

    different prediction methods

    There are different prediction methods, mobile averages, fibonacci, among others, having that variety sometimes also complicates the prediction procedure

  9. #9
    Elite Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Ottawa, Ontario
    Posts
    16,675
    Quote Originally Posted by CarlosR View Post
    There are different prediction methods, mobile averages, fibonacci, among others, having that variety sometimes also complicates the prediction procedure
    Is that a general statement...or are you trying
    to help Areola?
    I'm just an imagination of your figment !

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •