If we need to come up with a better theoretical formula, we might have to dig into this level of detail and more. At the moment, I'm more interested in confirming your sense that the formula isn't working, and for that we need data. (And that would probably be more convincing than any theory we come up with.)

Perhaps you're picturing a different sort of data collection than I am; or I may have an entirely wrong picture of what you do. (I imagine there's a lot more you aren't telling us, such as that there are really hundreds of different parts you're dealing with.)

I'm picturing that you just record which stations you stop at on each trip, and what containers you deliver at each. I would not be surprised if at least the latter is already reported somewhere. I'd just want that information each day for a month or so. Specifically, I want the actual number of stops you make per day, for comparison with the output of the formula, and if possible the actual number of containers used per day, for comparison with the input to the formula, in case that is wrong.

But you also say that the frequencies change regularly. Do you

mean that the numbers in the formula may change from day to day? Or just that they don't stay the same long enough to collect consistent data for a month? Where do those numbers come from? That data, too, may be already available!

As far as the formula is concerned, I've shown you that it does make sense theoretically, at least in terms of a very simplistic model, and may even overestimate the number of stops you make. I want to know how far it is from reality, in order to decide whether it is worth the effort to make a more complete model (given that I know very little about the whole reality of your situation, and there may be other issues that are more important to the model than what you've told us). Without both clear evidence that it is needed, and enough information to be sure I'm modeling accurately, I'm not about to try making a better formula.

Can you at least tell me what it is that leads you to think the formula is wrong? You must have some sort of evidence.

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