The game I am talking about is Forum Mafia.
This game has a total player base of 13 players
There are 10 good guys and 3 bad guys
Assume that 2 people leave the game per round: each round is divided up into 2 parts: a part where everyone votes someone off the game through majority vote, and a part where the bad guys pick someone to eliminate from the game.
Assume that each day, worst best case scenario happens, which means that two good guys are taken out of the game each round until one team wins.
What is the probability that the good guys need to be right in who they eliminate from the game to win the game by the time the bad guys have a majority by the end of the final round?
Bad guys win if they hold a majority of the players
Good guys win if they eliminate all bad guys
So far I have tried to multiply:
(10/13)(8/11)(6/9)(4/7)= ~20%
Is this right?
This game has a total player base of 13 players
There are 10 good guys and 3 bad guys
Assume that 2 people leave the game per round: each round is divided up into 2 parts: a part where everyone votes someone off the game through majority vote, and a part where the bad guys pick someone to eliminate from the game.
Assume that each day, worst best case scenario happens, which means that two good guys are taken out of the game each round until one team wins.
What is the probability that the good guys need to be right in who they eliminate from the game to win the game by the time the bad guys have a majority by the end of the final round?
Bad guys win if they hold a majority of the players
Good guys win if they eliminate all bad guys
So far I have tried to multiply:
(10/13)(8/11)(6/9)(4/7)= ~20%
Is this right?