Probability of seeing 11:11

LeeAllison

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Hello all,

I have a maths problem that needs to be solved please!!

Can somebody tell me what the probability of seeing the time 11:11 is in 1 day on a clock based on the average person looking at their phone 74 times a day and taking into account a clock set to 12hrs and not 24hr (making the occurrence possible twice in one day)

Then if you could provide that over a week period and a month that would be great!!

I'm trying to debunk the new age hippy theory that seeing these numbers somehow holds great spiritual significance :p

Thanks
 
Hello all,

I have a maths problem that needs to be solved please!!

Can somebody tell me what the probability of seeing the time 11:11 is in 1 day on a clock based on the average person looking at their phone 74 times a day and taking into account a clock set to 12hrs and not 24hr (making the occurrence possible twice in one day)

Then if you could provide that over a week period and a month that would be great!!

I'm trying to debunk the new age hippy theory that seeing these numbers somehow holds great spiritual significance :p

Thanks
How many minutes are there in 24 hours?
 
Should you take into account what time the average person goes to bed? It affects the probability of seeing 11:11pm.
 
Hello all,

I have a maths problem that needs to be solved please!!

Can somebody tell me what the probability of seeing the time 11:11 is in 1 day on a clock based on the average person looking at their phone 74 times a day and taking into account a clock set to 12hrs and not 24hr (making the occurrence possible twice in one day)

Then if you could provide that over a week period and a month that would be great!!

I'm trying to debunk the new age hippy theory that seeing these numbers somehow holds great spiritual significance :p

Thanks
You can't really do this except as a kind of Fermi estimate, which is an estimate that makes no pretence of doing anything but indicate an order of magnitude. "Average" people do not look at their phones randomly. They do not look at them at all when they are asleep. They probably do not look at them while they are scrubbing their teeth.

For your purposes, you want to err on the side of underestimating so let's first assume that, except for adolescents who by definition are NOT normal, "average people" do not so much as glance at their phones from nine in the evening until nine in the morning. We shall further assume that they glance at their phone at 24 random times during the remaining 12 hours and notice the time only once during a call. (I am rejecting the statistic of 74 because, at one minute per average call, that would mean that the average person is spending more than an hour a day on their cell phone, which means that we are discussing my daughter, not an average person. Moreover, if my daughter made 74 calls per day, that would mean that she was spending at least 12 hours a day on the phone (because she is physically unable to be on the phone for under 10 minutes).)

So in the 12 hours assumed relevant, there are 12 times 60 minutes = 720 minutes. Given the presumed randomness of phone glances, the probability of seeing 11:11 is

\(\displaystyle \dfrac{24}{720} = \dfrac{1}{30} \approx 3.3\%.\)

Which means that the probability of not seeing it on any given day is

\(\displaystyle \dfrac{29}{30} \approx 96.7\%.\)

Now making the further assumption that our exact times of glancing at the phone are independent from day to day, the probability of not seeing 11:11 over 7 days (a week according to Western reckoning although that is not a human universal) is

\(\displaystyle \left ( \dfrac{29}{30} \right )^7\)

so the probability of seeing 11:11 over a week

\(\displaystyle 1 - \left ( \dfrac{29}{30} \right )^7 \approx 21.1\%.\)

That is higher than the probability of rolling a 1 on a single roll of a fair die.

Months of course are not of equal duration, but February is the shortest month of the year so let's say a month has AT LEAST 28 days. Therefore the probability of seeing 11:11 at least once during a month is at least

\(\displaystyle 1 - \left ( \dfrac{29}{30} \right )^{28} \approx 61.3\%\)

which is very close to being 5 chances out of 8, substantially better than even money.

Your mileage may vary, but if people actually do look at their phone 74 times a day and notice the time on each of those 74 glances (neither of which is information that I am convinced is reliable), they are practically certain to see 11:11 at least once during a month.
 
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We assume that nobody sleeps thru a "11:11" flash!
We also assume a 8 hours sleeping period.
So we have a 16*60 = 960 minutes "looking" period.
So we have a daily possibility of 74/960 = .077
Over a 30day month: 30 * .077 = 2.3
Sooo easily about twice per month.
I'm more generous than you Jeff :lol:
 
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We assume that nobody sleeps thru a "1:11" flash!
We also assume a 8 hours sleeping period.
So we have a 16*60 = 960 minutes "looking" period.
So we have a daily possibility of 74/960 = .077
Over a 30day month: 30 * .077 = 2.3
Sooo easily about twice per month.
I'm more generous than you Jeff :lol:
That's because all those hours of standing in the corner have FINALLY improved your character.
 
That's because all those hours of standing in the corner have FINALLY improved your character.
Well (don't tell anyone) while in the corner, I was practicing looking at my phone....
 
Ok. So you all are saying that the fact that I see 11:11 on different clocks about every other day is meaningful then? I found this forum because I had this exact question. I didn't know what to believe about the 11:11 woo/hippie phenom, so I tested it. I requested that I see it. Like in a prayer, just for fun. And for about a month now I see 11:11 at least every other day, sometimes twice in one day. Sometimes also 1:11. Its gotten to the point where I'm considering writing it down it happens so often. And so I wondered, well maybe its not a big coincidence, perhaps I just never thought about it before. I should record it and see. But who has the wherewithal to write down all the times in a day one looks at! It is true, I don't go to bed until about midnight so I am up for both 11:11 events each day perhaps doubling the chances you all listed up above?
 
I too have been seeing 111 and 1111 several times a day also my birthday is 01111960
 
You can't really do this except as a kind of Fermi estimate, which is an estimate that makes no pretence of doing anything but indicate an order of magnitude. "Average" people do not look at their phones randomly. They do not look at them at all when they are asleep. They probably do not look at them while they are scrubbing their teeth.

For your purposes, you want to err on the side of underestimating so let's first assume that, except for adolescents who by definition are NOT normal, "average people" do not so much as glance at their phones from nine in the evening until nine in the morning. We shall further assume that they glance at their phone at 24 random times during the remaining 12 hours and notice the time only once during a call. (I am rejecting the statistic of 74 because, at one minute per average call, that would mean that the average person is spending more than an hour a day on their cell phone, which means that we are discussing my daughter, not an average person. Moreover, if my daughter made 74 calls per day, that would mean that she was spending at least 12 hours a day on the phone (because she is physically unable to be on the phone for under 10 minutes).)

So in the 12 hours assumed relevant, there are 12 times 60 minutes = 720 minutes. Given the presumed randomness of phone glances, the probability of seeing 11:11 is

\(\displaystyle \dfrac{24}{720} = \dfrac{1}{30} \approx 3.3\%.\)

Which means that the probability of not seeing it on any given day is

\(\displaystyle \dfrac{29}{30} \approx 96.7\%.\)

Now making the further assumption that our exact times of glancing at the phone are independent from day to day, the probability of not seeing 11:11 over 7 days (a week according to Western reckoning although that is not a human universal) is

\(\displaystyle \left ( \dfrac{29}{30} \right )^7\)

so the probability of seeing 11:11 over a week

\(\displaystyle 1 - \left ( \dfrac{29}{30} \right )^7 \approx 21.1\%.\)

That is higher than the probability of rolling a 1 on a single roll of a fair die.

Months of course are not of equal duration, but February is the shortest month of the year so let's say a month has AT LEAST 28 days. Therefore the probability of seeing 11:11 at least once during a month is at least

\(\displaystyle 1 - \left ( \dfrac{29}{30} \right )^{28} \approx 61.3\%\)

which is very close to being 5 chances out of 8, substantially better than even money.

Your mileage may vary, but if people actually do look at their phone 74 times a day and notice the time on each of those 74 glances (neither of which is information that I am convinced is reliable), they are practically certain to see 11:11 at least once during a month.
I started out by likimg this. The first sentence was almost sufficient. You're cheeky, and I respect that you took it seriously. Unfortunately we both know there are simply too many variables to assert that meaning beyond numbers exist with this phenomena. You are clearly very bright, that was a remarkable attempt at postulating something so incredibly complex. Without context it's hard for me to determine whether or not it's tongue in cheek. I have to assume you are somone whom adheres to imperical evidence. The bottom line is if you take note of the fact that you are seeing 11:11 and youve decided this has some other meaning than what is self evident, you're reinforcing the psycholocal loop. Its an example of cognitive bias ...a la Baader-Meinhof. Having said thetJeff, your explanation was enough to register to this site. Btw the Fermi paradox is useless in my humble opinion. Forgive the typos and grammar, I've had a touch of the sacrament and I'm ADHD.
 
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Btw the Fermi paradox is useless
I have not heard about "this" paradox !

Is it a brother of "Zeno's paradox"?

Per chance, would you be talking about "Fermi estimate"? By the way, Fermi estimate is extremely useful in engineering.
 
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