Hello
(first time to post)
I have a question on setting up a conditional probability formula. At lest I think it falls under conditional probability.
I am trying to assign (calculate) a probability that the low temperature (for November in this case but any month going forward) will be less than "t"
Here is what data I have: going back to 2009 I have the lows for each November. from that data ALONE (treating the 9 points as normally distributed) I can say 98% chance the low will be less than 30 degrees and so forth (in Excel)
My conditional question comes in here:
The probability of a November low being less than 18 fromthe historic lows is 15%
What if I see the weather forecast shows a forecasted low of17?
Now I have a “given the forecast says..”
Next, every morning I gather and store in a database: theforecast and actual temps (yesterday). Meaning I can with SQL scripts gather the probability that the forecast is accurate within “x” degrees
I do this for two different forecasts services. I have plenty of data.
I know that the forecast needs to be considered. In June ifI was asked (for planning purposes) what is the probability November’s low will be less than 18, I would need to say 15% (from history)
But if I am asked now and I see the forecast shows 17degrees in 3 days, I need to include “given that the 3 day out forecast states 17 and the accuracy of being within 1 degree 3 days out is 55% (made that up)
How can I use the data I have: historical and within my databases to answer the question: what is the probability the temperature willbe lower than “t” for the month?
Thanks
-Sparky_
(first time to post)
I have a question on setting up a conditional probability formula. At lest I think it falls under conditional probability.
I am trying to assign (calculate) a probability that the low temperature (for November in this case but any month going forward) will be less than "t"
Here is what data I have: going back to 2009 I have the lows for each November. from that data ALONE (treating the 9 points as normally distributed) I can say 98% chance the low will be less than 30 degrees and so forth (in Excel)
My conditional question comes in here:
The probability of a November low being less than 18 fromthe historic lows is 15%
What if I see the weather forecast shows a forecasted low of17?
Now I have a “given the forecast says..”
Next, every morning I gather and store in a database: theforecast and actual temps (yesterday). Meaning I can with SQL scripts gather the probability that the forecast is accurate within “x” degrees
I do this for two different forecasts services. I have plenty of data.
I know that the forecast needs to be considered. In June ifI was asked (for planning purposes) what is the probability November’s low will be less than 18, I would need to say 15% (from history)
But if I am asked now and I see the forecast shows 17degrees in 3 days, I need to include “given that the 3 day out forecast states 17 and the accuracy of being within 1 degree 3 days out is 55% (made that up)
How can I use the data I have: historical and within my databases to answer the question: what is the probability the temperature willbe lower than “t” for the month?
Thanks
-Sparky_