I’m looking for a probability formula that is based more on theoretical concepts rather than defined numbers, and I’m not quite sure it exists. I’ve looked through the link below (there are lots of different probability formulas listed at the bottom of the webpage) but none of them seem to be quite what I need.
http://www.probabilityformula.org/
As an example of what I’m needing this probability formula to be for, consider the following two claims:
On their own, each claim could be true or false, but in relation to background evidence both claims are not equally probable.
For the first claim, the general existence of squirrels is well documented and supported by indisputable, direct evidence, which means that the first claim has a high probability of being true at face value. That individual claim could be further investigated and it could be found that I was lying about seeing a squirrel in the woods, but nonetheless it’s reasonable to believe the claim upon hearing it based on the large amount of background evidence which supports the existence of squirrels.
The second claim, however, is only supported by disputable, indirect and at times discredited evidence. There have been many claimed sightings of bigfoot, but none have been confirmed. Because of this, even if I truly believed that I saw bigfoot, that claim on its own is not likely to be true given the large amount of background evidence that does not support the general existence of bigfoot. Even if in objective reality I did actually see bigfoot, I shouldn’t expect anyone else to believe that claim until I had strong evidence that overrides the current background evidence that makes it improbable that any individual claim of seeing bigfoot is true.
So, given that we don’t know exact numbers for claimed sightings of squirrels or bigfoot to use as a denominator, it makes it kind of difficult to apply a defined formula to those claims. Could something be set up to where maybe 1 = “Supported by direct evidence” and 2 = “Not supported by direct evidence” and those numbers are used as denominators? The outcomes may or may not line up with traditional statistics with, for example, 0.5 being a 50% chance of the claim being true, but that’s ok so long as the formula could be applied consistently to any claim. So if anyone knows of an already existing formula or has ideas on how to create one, please feel free to respond!
http://www.probabilityformula.org/
As an example of what I’m needing this probability formula to be for, consider the following two claims:
- I went into the woods and saw a squirrel.
- I went into the woods and saw bigfoot.
On their own, each claim could be true or false, but in relation to background evidence both claims are not equally probable.
For the first claim, the general existence of squirrels is well documented and supported by indisputable, direct evidence, which means that the first claim has a high probability of being true at face value. That individual claim could be further investigated and it could be found that I was lying about seeing a squirrel in the woods, but nonetheless it’s reasonable to believe the claim upon hearing it based on the large amount of background evidence which supports the existence of squirrels.
The second claim, however, is only supported by disputable, indirect and at times discredited evidence. There have been many claimed sightings of bigfoot, but none have been confirmed. Because of this, even if I truly believed that I saw bigfoot, that claim on its own is not likely to be true given the large amount of background evidence that does not support the general existence of bigfoot. Even if in objective reality I did actually see bigfoot, I shouldn’t expect anyone else to believe that claim until I had strong evidence that overrides the current background evidence that makes it improbable that any individual claim of seeing bigfoot is true.
So, given that we don’t know exact numbers for claimed sightings of squirrels or bigfoot to use as a denominator, it makes it kind of difficult to apply a defined formula to those claims. Could something be set up to where maybe 1 = “Supported by direct evidence” and 2 = “Not supported by direct evidence” and those numbers are used as denominators? The outcomes may or may not line up with traditional statistics with, for example, 0.5 being a 50% chance of the claim being true, but that’s ok so long as the formula could be applied consistently to any claim. So if anyone knows of an already existing formula or has ideas on how to create one, please feel free to respond!