Expected/Actual Values and how to rate them

[nikolo]

[h=2][/h]

Hello all. I am trying to analyze a statistics problem and i am a bit stuck. Any help would be much appreciated. The problem is this.
I have a large database of clients of a betting company and the bets each clients has made for a particular time interval (eg 1 year).
For every bet made, i know the formula for the Expected Company's Profit. This is based on the stake of each bet and the odds.
For every bet also , i know whether it is lost or won, so i know the Actual Company's profit as well.
What i want to do, is to rate all the clients on categories based on how much a client is "dangerous" for the company .
I think i need to compare the actual and the expected profit and and to calculate the confidence factor. Confidence factor i think shall be is the percentage the ACTUAL profit is taken in account ( a client may be lucky and win an extraordinary bet , so ACTUAL profit does not tell always the truth, while EXPECTED does).

Any ideas? Thanx in advance​

 

[Ishuda]

Hello all. I am trying to analyze a statistics problem and i am a bit stuck. Any help would be much appreciated. The problem is this.
I have a large database of clients of a betting company and the bets each clients has made for a particular time interval (eg 1 year).
For every bet made, i know the formula for the Expected Company's Profit. This is based on the stake of each bet and the odds.
For every bet also , i know whether it is lost or won, so i know the Actual Company's profit as well.
What i want to do, is to rate all the clients on categories based on how much a client is "dangerous" for the company .
I think i need to compare the actual and the expected profit and and to calculate the confidence factor. Confidence factor i think shall be is the percentage the ACTUAL profit is taken in account ( a client may be lucky and win an extraordinary bet , so ACTUAL profit does not tell always the truth, while EXPECTED does).

Any ideas? Thanx in advance​

What are your thoughts? What have you done so far? Please show us your work even if you feel that it is wrong so we may try to help you. You might also read
http://www.freemathhelp.com/forum/threads/78006-Read-Before-Posting

I think you are on the right track. The way I would approach it is to determine (assume) some sort of distribution for the company profit, i.e. the companies profit on a single bet follows a normal distribution with mean of 10 (percent of the bet) and standard deviation of 6 (percent) [you could use your complete data set to obtain an estimate of the mean and standard deviation]. Now use your data samples for a particular customer to obtain a mean for them. Test that mean against the, in the example, 10%. Reading
http://stattrek.com/hypothesis-test/mean.aspx?Tutorial=AP
might help.