Bayes’ theorem: "A man goes to see his medical doctor to find out..."
Hi all
Ive been trying to solve this problem for hours but cannot work it out for the life of me. Any assistance would be greatly appreciated.
A man goes to see his medical doctor to find out whether or not he has a deadly disease. The test is positive. The test is 95% accurate and one in one thousand men of his age has this disease. What is the probability he has the disease?
He decides to seek a second opinion but the results are exactly the same. When this question was put to a group of doctors, 80% of them answered “95%”. He now plans to sell up all his assets, tell his boss what he really thinks of her, quit his job on the spot and live in Mauritius in the time he has left. Is this a rational decision? Explain.
Regards
ElSmee
Hi all
Ive been trying to solve this problem for hours but cannot work it out for the life of me. Any assistance would be greatly appreciated.
A man goes to see his medical doctor to find out whether or not he has a deadly disease. The test is positive. The test is 95% accurate and one in one thousand men of his age has this disease. What is the probability he has the disease?
He decides to seek a second opinion but the results are exactly the same. When this question was put to a group of doctors, 80% of them answered “95%”. He now plans to sell up all his assets, tell his boss what he really thinks of her, quit his job on the spot and live in Mauritius in the time he has left. Is this a rational decision? Explain.
Regards
ElSmee