Bayesian Problems?

S

SIMS

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A cat owner has a cat which yells 5% of the time when its food bowl is full. 1% of the time when its food bowl is empty, it does not yell. Its bowl is empty .5% of the time.

1. Is the question "Given that the cat is yelling, what is the probability the cat's bowl is empty?" conditional or Bayesian?
I say Bayesian.

2. What is the probability the cat is yelling and its bowl is empty?
Using a tree diagram I got .99x.5

This is where I began to get stuck.
3.What is the probability the cat is yelling?


4. Given that the cat is yelling, what is the probability the cat's bowl is empty?

Can someone double check the first 2? I do not wish to be given the answer but just shown how to work them out.

Thank You in advance.
 
SIMS said:
A cat owner has a cat which yells 5% of the time when its food bowl is full. 1% of the time when its food bowl is empty, it does not yell. Its bowl is empty .5% of the time.

1. Is the question "Given that the cat is yelling, what is the probability the cat's bowl is empty?" conditional or Bayesian?
I say Bayesian.

2. What is the probability the cat is yelling and its bowl is empty?
Using a tree diagram I got .99x.5

This is where I began to get stuck.
3.What is the probability the cat is yelling?

4. Given that the cat is yelling, what is the probability the cat's bowl is empty?

Can someone double check the first 2? I do not wish to be given the answer but just shown how to work them out.

Thank You in advance.
Click to expand...
I tend to have to work these thing out myself. So 100000 cases
Empty 0.5% of the time is empty 500 times
Of the 500 times it is empty how many times does the cat yell?

Full the remaining times.
Of the remaining times it is full how many times does the cat yell?

So it yells a total of how many times? Out of those times, how many times is it empty?

As for the conditional vrs Bayesian, I look at it in the following way: I think of Bayesian as a sort of "how much do you believe the results" kind of probability. In this case things seem straight forward as to the actual probability and the answer depends on the condition that the cat is yelling.
 
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