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Hello all. I am trying to analyze a statistics problem and i am a bit stuck. Any help would be much appreciated. The problem is this.
I have a large database of clients of a betting company and the bets each clients has made for a particular time interval (eg 1 year).
For every bet made, i know the formula for the Expected Company's Profit. This is based on the stake of each bet and the odds.
For every bet also , i know whether it is lost or won, so i know the Actual Company's profit as well.
What i want to do, is to rate all the clients on categories based on how much a client is "dangerous" for the company .
I think i need to compare the actual and the expected profit and and to calculate the confidence factor. Confidence factor i think shall be is the percentage the ACTUAL profit is taken in account ( a client may be lucky and win an extraordinary bet , so ACTUAL profit does not tell always the truth, while EXPECTED does).
Any ideas? Thanx in advance
I have a large database of clients of a betting company and the bets each clients has made for a particular time interval (eg 1 year).
For every bet made, i know the formula for the Expected Company's Profit. This is based on the stake of each bet and the odds.
For every bet also , i know whether it is lost or won, so i know the Actual Company's profit as well.
What i want to do, is to rate all the clients on categories based on how much a client is "dangerous" for the company .
I think i need to compare the actual and the expected profit and and to calculate the confidence factor. Confidence factor i think shall be is the percentage the ACTUAL profit is taken in account ( a client may be lucky and win an extraordinary bet , so ACTUAL profit does not tell always the truth, while EXPECTED does).
Any ideas? Thanx in advance