Hi, a problem come from a article from : https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6491/553 said:
Many avenues will be dead ends, so many different paths—each corresponding to an independent effort—should be pursued. Consider funding 10,000 such efforts. Even if each had only a 0.1% chance of producing an advance in prevention, treatment, or infection control, the probability of at least five such advances would be 97%. By contrast, if efforts crowd into only a few prospects, the odds of collective failure can become overwhelming.
"the probability of at least five such advances would be 97%"
How did it be deduced and calculated?
Thank you very much!
Many avenues will be dead ends, so many different paths—each corresponding to an independent effort—should be pursued. Consider funding 10,000 such efforts. Even if each had only a 0.1% chance of producing an advance in prevention, treatment, or infection control, the probability of at least five such advances would be 97%. By contrast, if efforts crowd into only a few prospects, the odds of collective failure can become overwhelming.
"the probability of at least five such advances would be 97%"
How did it be deduced and calculated?
Thank you very much!
