Augmented Dickey Fuller test interpretation: how many lags? which is final?

martin.g25

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Feb 10, 2023
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Hello,

I would like to ask for a help in relation to the Augmented Dickey Fuller test interpretation. I have to perform ADF tests for a group of macroeconomic variables and I would have two questions:

1. how many lags should be included in the ADF test? I read that in case of quarterly data, we should include 4 lags. In case of monthly data we should include 12 lags. Is it true or do you know any other rule?

2. which lag should I consider in my final test decision? For example, I test GDP and for lags 0,1 and 3 I would reject the null hypotesis and I could say that the time series is stacionary. However, for lags 2 and 4 I fail to reject the null hyposes and I must say that the GPD is non-stationary? What is true? :) Please see attached image to see what I mean.

Could you please help me in this problem?

Thank you

GDP1.png
 
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