Author says: Chance of Horse B finishing in the top three is about 74%. (How??)

[Chads]

I'm reading a book about betting and in the chapter about Value the author writes about a theoretical race where a certain horse's chance of getting in the frame is about 74%...

Theoretical 8 Horse Race and their true relative chances;

Horse A is 2/9 favourite;

Horse B is 11/2;

Horses C,D,E,F,G,H are each 33/1;

The author states that the chance of Horse B finishing in the top three is about 74%.

I need some help with how he likely came to this answer becuase he said 'the mathematics of the calculation need not detain us', but it does me

Thanks

 

[tkhunny]

I'm reading a book about betting and in the chapter about Value the author writes about a theoretical race where a certain horse's chance of getting in the frame is about 74%...

Theoretical 8 Horse Race and their true relative chances;

Horse A is 2/9 favourite;

Horse B is 11/2;

Horses C,D,E,F,G,H are each 33/1;

The author states that the chance of Horse B finishing in the top three is about 74%.

I need some help with how he likely came to this answer becuase he said 'the mathematics of the calculation need not detain us', but it does me

Thanks

#1 - Odds in Horse Racing are NOT the Probability of Winning. The odds are a reflection of peoples' opinions of their chances of winning and a reflection of the cash available to those with opinions. It's a wagering system, not a statistical system.

#2 - In order for B NOT to finish in the top 3, three others must finish in front of B. Ponder this slightly different view of the question.

#3 - In case you don't believe #1, I dare you to add up the fake probabilities and get an actual probability distribution. It all must add to unity (1) or there is something seriously wrong with the premise that these are actual probabilities of winning.

#4 - I agree that there is no need to be detained by the foolishly generated calculations. Detainment would require the author to make sense of it. It is unlikely the author can do so.