HaloedBane
New member
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2018
- Messages
- 3
[FONT="]Hi there, first post here. I have a problem that’s drivin me crazy.[/FONT][FONT="]
Say a particular event always has a 2% probability of occurring on each occasion, then the average number of such events occurring after 100 occasions is 2, right?[/FONT]
[FONT="]How do I calculate it when the probability goes down each time an event occurs. For example: if the event has never happened, then the probability is 2%, but if it already occurred once, then the probability of it happening on each subsequent occasion drops to 1%, and if it's already occurred twice, then the probability of a third occurrence is 0.1%. (After 3 occurrences, the probability drops to 0).[/FONT]
[FONT="]Given that data, how would I go about calculating the average number of such events occurring after 100 occasions? I know it’ll be less than 2.0, but I can’t figure out a formula.
Any help would be much appreciated![/FONT]
Say a particular event always has a 2% probability of occurring on each occasion, then the average number of such events occurring after 100 occasions is 2, right?[/FONT]
[FONT="]How do I calculate it when the probability goes down each time an event occurs. For example: if the event has never happened, then the probability is 2%, but if it already occurred once, then the probability of it happening on each subsequent occasion drops to 1%, and if it's already occurred twice, then the probability of a third occurrence is 0.1%. (After 3 occurrences, the probability drops to 0).[/FONT]
[FONT="]Given that data, how would I go about calculating the average number of such events occurring after 100 occasions? I know it’ll be less than 2.0, but I can’t figure out a formula.
Any help would be much appreciated![/FONT]