mathnoob1234
New member
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2023
- Messages
- 3
How do I go about calculating the expected value of this situation:
We are playing a game, and have accumulated 10 points thus far in our turn. At the end of our turn we have the option to roll a dice - if the roll is > 4 then we get to add on 20 points to our current 10, if it is <= 4 then we lose our points and end the turn at 0. One added condition is that if we end the turn with 0 points, we get penalized an additional 6 points. If we refuse the option we end the turn at 10 points.
What I currently have is:
Roll option
EV = EV(dice>4) + EV(dice<=4) = (2/6) * (10 + 20) + (4/6) * (0 - 6) = 6
No Roll option
EV = 10
Is this correct? Or do I need to pretend that I am losing the 10 points when I roll <= 4 to make that term -16 instead of -6? Any help in clarifying this is appreciated thanks!
We are playing a game, and have accumulated 10 points thus far in our turn. At the end of our turn we have the option to roll a dice - if the roll is > 4 then we get to add on 20 points to our current 10, if it is <= 4 then we lose our points and end the turn at 0. One added condition is that if we end the turn with 0 points, we get penalized an additional 6 points. If we refuse the option we end the turn at 10 points.
What I currently have is:
Roll option
EV = EV(dice>4) + EV(dice<=4) = (2/6) * (10 + 20) + (4/6) * (0 - 6) = 6
No Roll option
EV = 10
Is this correct? Or do I need to pretend that I am losing the 10 points when I roll <= 4 to make that term -16 instead of -6? Any help in clarifying this is appreciated thanks!
