Checking back data for sportbetting

[neoking]

Hi all!

I recently got a bit into sportbetting. Nothing too serious and just for fun. Now, I have this site which makes predictions for football(or soccer in USA)matches, which for example predicts like this: Team A has 80% of winning, Draw = 10%, Team B has 10 % chance of winning. They also have a long record of the predictions they did in the past and the actual result. I find this really interesting, as it allows me to check back the data and to calculate how reliable they where in the past.

However, how do I do this: Say, according to the site Team A had 80 percent of winning, Team B 10 percent. Actual outcome: Team B won. How do I calculate this in figures and with the other results till I get a big enough sample for reliability? Thanks!

 

[Steven G]

I would look at the all the time the site said team x would have an 80% change of winning and compute their success rate (like team x won 90 out of 100 games).

Also understand that past success does not guarantee future success.

 

[neoking]

I would look at the all the time the site said team x would have an 80% change of winning and compute their success rate (like team x won 90 out of 100 games).

Also understand that past success does not guarantee future success.

Hi Jomo, thanks very much! What I did was compare the predictions with the actual result (prediction being a chance from 0 to 100 % and the actual result only being a either 0 (losing) or 1 (winning)). The competition consists of 18 teams with 17 rounds being played in total (each team playing one time against eachother). My mainquestion right now is: How do I calculate exactly how good the predictions where?