Hello,
Im trying to convert ratings into probabilities and then odds for a set of ratings on horses.
I am trying to back calculate to a set off odds ive taken off another website (TARGET ODDS) using the exact same ratings so basically trying to replicate what they have done I have attempted to do it by taking the log of the difference in ratings ( Maximum rating minus rating) using 1/1.2^(max rating - rating) ) and can get close to highest probability odds of 100 rating but as i move to other lower ratings eg 88 im finding my probabilities are always lower (ie the odds are higher than the target im trying to target eg 88 is $25 vs $12 on the website target rating). If i adjust the factor eg to 1.15 the problem remains.
Is there a better way of doing this to ensure lower ratings arent given as low probability? Hope this makes sense i couldnt seem to attach an excel file.
Regards
Simon
Im trying to convert ratings into probabilities and then odds for a set of ratings on horses.
I am trying to back calculate to a set off odds ive taken off another website (TARGET ODDS) using the exact same ratings so basically trying to replicate what they have done I have attempted to do it by taking the log of the difference in ratings ( Maximum rating minus rating) using 1/1.2^(max rating - rating) ) and can get close to highest probability odds of 100 rating but as i move to other lower ratings eg 88 im finding my probabilities are always lower (ie the odds are higher than the target im trying to target eg 88 is $25 vs $12 on the website target rating). If i adjust the factor eg to 1.15 the problem remains.
Is there a better way of doing this to ensure lower ratings arent given as low probability? Hope this makes sense i couldnt seem to attach an excel file.
Regards
Simon
