Dice probability of rolling 9 or more on 2 six sided dice w/ re-roll

bjorn

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May 19, 2017
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Hello!
I have a pretty simple problem with dice that is made really hard by a re roll.
The problem is this: I want to know the percentage probability of rolling 9 or more on 2 six sided dice (2d6) BUT i get to re roll one of the dice.
How do you even start to calculate this?
 
p(9 or more on the first roll) for starters.

It is reasonable to think that you would NOT reroll if this first roll produced 9 or more.

p(9 or more on fist roll) + p(8 or less on first roll) * p(fixing it with a reroll)

For p(fixng it with a reroll), simply specify the entire distribution:

What is the value of the die you are NOT rerolling?

1 - p(fixing it) = 0
2 - p(fixing it) = 0
3 - p(fiing it) = p(rolling 6) = 1/6
4 - Continue in this way...

Exploration: It my also be reasonable to assume you will reroll the die wit the lesser value on the first roll. Does this change the result?
 
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