Estimating the best number to choose from +-30000 of 1,000,000 (I just don't get it, please help)

[kimyou29]

Hi,

so I will start by admitting I am pretty stupid and this question might have a very simple solution...But I just don't get it!!!

The question is
-First, any 15 random numbers get chosen that are in between 1030000 ~ 970000 (+-30000 of 1,000,000).
-Second, out of those 15 numbers,
Question 1: 1000 people select 4 random numbers and the most chosen 4 numbers are then averaged. What is the number or the range of numbers that have the highest chance of being the correct answer?
Question 2: Same question but this time only 100 people select 4 random numbers. Does the answer defer from question 1 or stay the same?

If you can explain how you got the answer, that'd be sincerely appreciated.

Thank you,

Daniel from Canada

 

[Romsek]

The question is
-First, any 15 random numbers get chosen that are in between 1030000 ~ 970000 (+-30000 of 1,000,000).
-Second, out of those 15 numbers,
Question 1: 1000 people select 4 random numbers and the most chosen 4 numbers are then averaged. What is the number or the range of numbers that have the highest chance of being the correct answer?

You're saying that you first select 15 random numbers in [970000,1030000] and then
1000 people select 4 from those 15?

What constitutes being a correct answer?

 

[kimyou29]

You're saying that you first select 15 random numbers in [970000,1030000] and then
1000 people select 4 from those 15?

What constitutes being a correct answer?

Which number has the highest chance of being the average of the 4?