Expectation of two phase process

mrolnik

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May 10, 2021
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What is the expected outcome of playing randomly chosen number (X) of random games (Y).
Where X and Y discrete random variables, both receive values from a [1 .. n], [1 .. m] ranges.

I don't mind assuming that X and Y are binomial
 
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let [MATH]Z[/MATH] be a random variable whose value is [MATH]\Sigma_{i=0}^{X}Y[/MATH] ([MATH]X[/MATH] is evaluated once)

let [MATH]Z_i[/MATH] be a random variable whose value is the outcome of the [MATH]i[/MATH]s game in the described process then [MATH]Z=\Sigma_{i}{Z_i}[/MATH][MATH]P_{Z_i}(z)=\Sigma_{j}P(Y=z, X=j)=\Sigma_{j}{P(Y=z/X=j)}{P_{X}(j)}=P_{Y}(z)P_{X}(\ge i)[/MATH][MATH]E(Z_i)=\Sigma_{z}zP_{Y}(z)P_{X}(\ge i)=P_{X}(\ge i)E(Y)[/MATH][MATH]E(Z)=\Sigma_{i}E(Z_i)=\Sigma_{i}P_{X}(\ge i)E(Y)=E(Y)\Sigma_{i}P_{X}(\ge i)[/MATH]
[MATH]E(Z)=E(Y)\Sigma_{i}P_{X}(\ge i)[/MATH] does not feel right to me.
 
just realized that [MATH]\Sigma_{i}P_{X}(\ge i)=\Sigma_{i}iP_{X}(i)=EX[/MATH]
 
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