Gambling

[Teddy6451]

Imagine there is a gambling site, that is based on a computer program and the win chance is exactly 50%. Does the possibility of winning increase when a great amount of consecutive losses occur?
If i place the money after every 10 consecutive losses for 1000 times, am I more likely to get a profit?
I think it is obvious that the possibility of winning should increase with consecutive losses, but i had a few mathematicians tell me that since the possibility was 50% at the beginning, it always remains 50%, regardless of the previous losses/wins.
What do you guys think?

 

[BigBeachBanana]

Is winning each game independent? Why do you think your chance of winning will increase?

 

[Zermelo]

Listen to the mathematicians ? If the rounds are independent of each other (like coin tosses, or slot machines), then it doesn’t matter if you had a million consecutive losses. But if there is some way that previous rounds affect the current ones, like for example if you draw cards out of a deck, without returning them afterward, if you drew 20 “bad cards”, then there is more “good cards” in the deck, and your strategy makes sense. For example in poker, if you see 2 kings on the table and you have a king in your hand, the probability of someone else having the fourth king is very low (1/#no-of-remaining-cards)
But again, individual rounds are independent of each other, and if you had bad luck in the first 1000 games of poker, it doesn’t mean anything for the 1001st, because the cards are shuffled each time.

 

[Teddy6451]

Listen to the mathematicians ? If the rounds are independent of each other (like coin tosses, or slot machines), then it doesn’t matter if you had a million consecutive losses. But if there is some way that previous rounds affect the current ones, like for example if you draw cards out of a deck, without returning them afterward, if you drew 20 “bad cards”, then there is more “good cards” in the deck, and your strategy makes sense. For example in poker, if you see 2 kings on the table and you have a king in your hand, the probability of someone else having the fourth king is very low (1/#no-of-remaining-cards)
But again, individual rounds are independent of each other, and if you had bad luck in the first 1000 games of poker, it doesn’t mean anything for the 1001st, because the cards are shuffled each time.

Well, i don't know if the previous losses/wins have influence, but i have been trying to test this practically (placing a bet after 14 consecutive losses while the win chance is 50%) and got 13 wins and only 3 losses so far...
It would be a pretty rare thing for this to happen randomly, no?
Also, there were mathematicians who told me that the amount of consecutive losses does, indeed, have an influence on what will come next.
I'm not sure if it's completely random, i mean, the statistics show the total amount of bets and the amount of wins/losses and most of the time the distribution between the wins and losses is nearly equal. I don't remember a time when there would be a significantly bigger number of wins or losses.

 

[Zermelo]

Well, i don't know if the previous losses/wins have influence, but i have been trying to test this practically (placing a bet after 14 consecutive losses while the win chance is 50%) and got 13 wins and only 3 losses so far...
It would be a pretty rare thing for this to happen randomly, no?
Also, there were mathematicians who told me that the amount of consecutive losses does, indeed, have an influence on what will come next.
I'm not sure if it's completely random, i mean, the statistics show the total amount of bets and the amount of wins/losses and most of the time the distribution between the wins and losses is nearly equal. I don't remember a time when there would be a significantly bigger number of wins or losses.

Well to be honest, if the odds were really 50/50 (truly randomly, without them picking which rounds lose and which win), the gambling site wouldn’t make any money in the long term, and they have to pay the domain, hosting, taxes, and earn some money. Gambling machines aren’t made to respect probability, they are made for getting money, and to keep you playing. So maybe the site actually does respect this rule, because many people (like you) believe in this logical fallacy, and thinking that you have figured out the game probably makes you play it longer, because you feel like you’re winning.
What I want to say is, in an ideal world, where the distribution is truly random (and the rounds are independent), consecutive losses don’t mean anything.
And gambling sites are made for earning money, so there probably is some way in which they control the outcome.
The probability of what you said happening randomly is simply 3/16 = 18.75 %, so not really that rare, and not remotely close enough to draw any conclusions.

 

[Steven G]

Imagine there is a gambling site, that is based on a computer program and the win chance is exactly 50%.

Tossing a coin yields 50% heads and 50% tails, just like your game. Say heads you win and tails you lose.
Suppose you toss 100 tails in a row. What is the chance that the next toss will be a head?
Assume that the coin is a fair coin.

 

[Teddy6451]

Well to be honest, if the odds were really 50/50 (truly randomly, without them picking which rounds lose and which win), the gambling site wouldn’t make any money in the long term, and they have to pay the domain, hosting, taxes, and earn some money. Gambling machines aren’t made to respect probability, they are made for getting money, and to keep you playing. So maybe the site actually does respect this rule, because many people (like you) believe in this logical fallacy, and thinking that you have figured out the game probably makes you play it longer, because you feel like you’re winning.
What I want to say is, in an ideal world, where the distribution is truly random (and the rounds are independent), consecutive losses don’t mean anything.
And gambling sites are made for earning money, so there probably is some way in which they control the outcome.
The probability of what you said happening randomly is simply 3/16 = 18.75 %, so not really that rare, and not remotely close enough to draw any conclusions.

I see. Well, they have some kind of game seed verifications there, so even if the bets aren't fully random, i think that, at least, they don't manually change the outcome of the bet, since apparently, it is already pre-determined by the game seed.
By the way, i've just had one more win and now the ballance is multiplied 19 times from my starting position, but oh well, i suppose it's just basic human psychology to see what they want to see and it all might end soon on a bad loss streak...
But if the previous ones have no influence on what comes next, then why did 16 or more consecutive losses not come a single time? I suppose it is technically possible for them not to come, but am i really this lucky, changing the seed every time and getting 14 magically good seeds and only 3 bad ones? Hmmm
well, anyways, these all remain hypothetical dreamings, so i will let you guys know how the stats will be after 100 bets and if the amount of losses will be <10%, i suppose it will be safe to assume that we beat the casino and go make millions? just kiddingD

 

[Zermelo]

I see. Well, they have some kind of game seed verifications there, so even if the bets aren't fully random, i think that, at least, they don't manually change the outcome of the bet, since apparently, it is already pre-determined by the game seed.
By the way, i've just had one more win and now the ballance is multiplied 19 times from my starting position, but oh well, i suppose it's just basic human psychology to see what they want to see and it all might end soon on a bad loss streak...
But if the previous ones have no influence on what comes next, then why did 16 or more consecutive losses not come a single time? I suppose it is technically possible for them not to come, but am i really this lucky, changing the seed every time and getting 14 magically good seeds and only 3 bad ones? Hmmm
well, anyways, these all remain hypothetical dreamings, so i will let you guys know how the stats will be after 100 bets and if the amount of losses will be <10%, i suppose it will be safe to assume that we beat the casino and go make millions? just kiddingD

Well there probably are statistical tests that can (with certain confidence) prove the dependance that you’re talking about, but they would probably need a lot of samples(a lot more than 100..). I’m no statistician tho, statistics is incredibly hard, you may want to contact an actual statistics expert for this, glad I could help this much ?