Hi, working on a game mod for a board game called Cthulhu Wars. It's an asymetrical area control game set in the Cthulhu Mythos of sorts.
In the game there is a bag of "Elder Signs" that are tokens that have a victory point value (called "Doom" in the game). In this bag there are:
36 overall tokens ("Elder Signs").
18 of them are 1's
12 of them are 2's
6 of them are 3's
Playing in real life you get to 'draw' these out of a bag. That process is "random" as you're selecting it from the wider distribution by reaching into a black bag.
Since I'm developing this online (using Tabletop Simulator), and TTS (as we abbreviate it) actually organizes the internal contents of the "bag" in the game actually as a "stack", identical to a deck of cards. This is very much not like drawing with your hand out of a bag, since the internal 'stack' is fixed and doesn't change (is set/randomized when you load the game file).
My concern here is that I have a game mechanic for this 'mod' I'm developing where the player is able to 'scry' (a Magic the Gathering Term) to look at 2, 3 or even 4 of these Elder Signs before choosing one. My concern is that drawing these tiles from a 'stack' as opposed to a 'bag' create different probabilities. I have what I think are the reasons why, but with probabilities things are rather un-intuitive after you get beyond the basics, so I'd rather not put my foot in my mouth by explaining what I think is going on here.
A very simple way to rephrase this problem is this:
If I'm looking for aces in a deck and if I draw 3 cards right from the top of the deck, is that the same as drawing each card 1 at a time and shuffling the deck each time before I draw the next?
In the game there is a bag of "Elder Signs" that are tokens that have a victory point value (called "Doom" in the game). In this bag there are:
36 overall tokens ("Elder Signs").
18 of them are 1's
12 of them are 2's
6 of them are 3's
Playing in real life you get to 'draw' these out of a bag. That process is "random" as you're selecting it from the wider distribution by reaching into a black bag.
Since I'm developing this online (using Tabletop Simulator), and TTS (as we abbreviate it) actually organizes the internal contents of the "bag" in the game actually as a "stack", identical to a deck of cards. This is very much not like drawing with your hand out of a bag, since the internal 'stack' is fixed and doesn't change (is set/randomized when you load the game file).
My concern here is that I have a game mechanic for this 'mod' I'm developing where the player is able to 'scry' (a Magic the Gathering Term) to look at 2, 3 or even 4 of these Elder Signs before choosing one. My concern is that drawing these tiles from a 'stack' as opposed to a 'bag' create different probabilities. I have what I think are the reasons why, but with probabilities things are rather un-intuitive after you get beyond the basics, so I'd rather not put my foot in my mouth by explaining what I think is going on here.
A very simple way to rephrase this problem is this:
If I'm looking for aces in a deck and if I draw 3 cards right from the top of the deck, is that the same as drawing each card 1 at a time and shuffling the deck each time before I draw the next?
