I was wondering if someone could point me in the right direction. (I am not a math person college algebra highest accolades)
I have tests and these tests are given the likelihood of occurrence percentages from -100% to 100% (100% meaning extremely likely to occur, and the opposite for -100%)
now the tests themselves are quantifiable as in either occurred or did not occur.
example
what is the likelihood that an asteroid the size of texas will impact Mars before November 1st, 2025?
if the estimated likelihood is -25%, and the event does occur. how would you quantify this to determine the accuracy of "likelihood" estimates?
im looking for a way to calculate percentage estimates accuracy and then putting this into an excel formula
and then an algorithm in time.
hopefully, this made sense and appreciate any help. thanks in advance for any help!
I have tests and these tests are given the likelihood of occurrence percentages from -100% to 100% (100% meaning extremely likely to occur, and the opposite for -100%)
now the tests themselves are quantifiable as in either occurred or did not occur.
example
what is the likelihood that an asteroid the size of texas will impact Mars before November 1st, 2025?
if the estimated likelihood is -25%, and the event does occur. how would you quantify this to determine the accuracy of "likelihood" estimates?
im looking for a way to calculate percentage estimates accuracy and then putting this into an excel formula
and then an algorithm in time.
hopefully, this made sense and appreciate any help. thanks in advance for any help!