probability formula

RM2020

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Been 30yrs since i left school & i just put electricity down cables so....

You visit your Manufacturing division, which has a machine producing metal bolts. In a tray of these bolts, 94% are within the allowable diameter tolerance value. The remainder exceed the tolerance. You withdraw six bolts at random from the tray. Determine the probabilities that;
(i) Two of the six bolts exceed the diameter.
(ii) More than two of the six bolts exceed the diameter.
 
It helps if you recognize the type of probability distribution that will assist you on your way. What you have here is Binomial with Probability of Success = 0.06 and a sample size of 6. I used 0.06, the % of finding a bad bolt on one draw, rather than 0.94, the probability of finding a good bold on one draw, because the questions are about bad bolts and it might be easier to understand. You should be able to use a table or a calculator simply to calculate the necessary values.

In my opinion, with a very small sample, one should simply construct the entire distribution and then answer ALL the questions. You can calculate the individual probabilities, but the construction of the entire distribution can be helpful and instructive. With a sample of 6, the only possible numbers of bad bolts are: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6

The structure of the probability distribution is very pattern-intensive, so it's easy to construct. A spreadsheet can help with the tedious arithmetic.

p(0 bad bolts): 1 * 0.94^6 * 0.06^0 = 0.689869781056
p(1 bad bolts): 6 * 0.94^5 * 0.06^1 = 0.264205448064
p(2 bad bolts): 15 * 0.94^4 * 0.06^2 = 0.04216044384
p(3 bad bolts): 20 * 0.94^3 * 0.06^3 = 0.00358812288
p(4 bad bolts): 15 * 0.94^2 * 0.06^4 = 0.00017177184
p(5 bad bolts): 6 * 0.94^1 * 0.06^5 = 0.000004385664
p(6 bad bolts): 1 * 0.94^0 * 0.06^6 = 0.000000046656

The only slightly tricky part is those magic numbers out front. They are called "Binomial Coefficients". They are not very difficult to calculate. Notice that they appear in a palindrome pattern. This helps, because you must calculate only about half of them.

Once we have the whole distribution, the questions are simple:

(i) Two of the six bolts exceed the diameter.
p(2 bad bolts): 15 * 0.94^4 * 0.06^2 = 0.04216044384

(ii) More than two of the six bolts exceed the diameter.
p(3 bad bolts): 20 * 0.94^3 * 0.06^3 = 0.00358812288
p(4 bad bolts): 15 * 0.94^2 * 0.06^4 = 0.00017177184
p(5 bad bolts): 6 * 0.94^1 * 0.06^5 = 0.000004385664
p(6 bad bolts): 1 * 0.94^0 * 0.06^6 = 0.000000046656
 
I would interpret that the problem describes selection without replacement, which would require the hypergeometric distribution. If [MATH]X[/MATH] is the number of bad items selected then
[MATH]P(X=x) = \frac{\binom 6 x \binom {90} {6 - x}}{\binom {96} 6}[/MATH].
That should be [MATH]6-x[/MATH] in the second factor. I don't know why it renders incorrectly.
 
I would interpret that the problem describes selection without replacement, which would require the hypergeometric distribution. If [MATH]X[/MATH] is the number of bad items selected then
[MATH]P(X=x) = \frac{\binom 6 x \binom {90} {6 - x}}{\binom {96} 6}[/MATH].
That should be [MATH]6-x[/MATH] in the second factor. I don't know why it renders incorrectly.
The problem doesn't say how many bolts are in the tray, so even though you are right that we can't assume a binomial distribution unless we know the number is large enough, that's the only way we can answer the questions.
 
The problem doesn't say how many bolts are in the tray, so even though you are right that we can't assume a binomial distribution unless we know the number is large enough, that's the only way we can answer the questions.
You're correct. I don't know where I got the 96 from; I would have sworn I read it. Probably Trump's or Pelosi's fault. :)
 
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to be honest its why over my math level
but many thanks for the reply's back
 
You're correct. I don't know where I got the 96 from; I would have sworn I read it. Probably Trump's or Pelosi's fault. :)
Don't pin that on Trump.!!

He is not responsible!!! It is what it is......???
 
HI
just a quick note
i got the 1st part correct but the 2nd part which was posted ( psb) on here was incorrect

p(3 bad bolts): 20 * 0.94^3 * 0.06^3 = 0.00358812288
p(4 bad bolts): 15 * 0.94^2 * 0.06^4 = 0.00017177184
p(5 bad bolts): 6 * 0.94^1 * 0.06^5 = 0.000004385664
p(6 bad bolts): 1 * 0.94^0 * 0.06^6 = 0.000000046656
 
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