Probability of an event

A

Andre833

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I'm not sure if my answer is correct and wondered if someone here could clarify.

Part 1) Assuming only one emergency can happen in one year on a ship. What is the probability of a ship experiencing one emergency situation that lasted for 30 mins happening during the ship’s one year of operation?

Formula: Probability = one instance event / total number of possible.

Answer: Probability of experiencing one (30mins)emergency situation in a year = one such event x 0.5hours / (365days x 24hours) = 0.000057 or a chance of 0.0057 %

Is my calculation correct? Or should i rephrase the question.

Part 2) Not all emergency situation will result in an accident. If the likelihood of recovering from an emergency situation is 99% and only 1% will result into an accident, what is the probability of an accident in part 1 situation:

Answer: Probability of an accident happening in an emergency situation in a year = 0.000057 x 0.01 = 0.00000057

Is the calculation correct?
 
I don't think there is any information here from which to calculate the probability you ask for.

You seem to be taking "only one" to mean "exactly one", which would imply that the probability of experiencing the emergency sometime in the year is 100%.

The probability you calculated is the probability that that one emergency will be in effect at a randomly chosen moment in the year.

Where do these questions come from?
 
I am writing the questions and don't know how to phrase it correctly for the given answer.
Would re-phrasing to the following be correct:... Assume that the year is split into non-overlapping 30min time intervals, and that the probability that an emergency occurs during any given time interval is uniformly distributed. Given that exactly one emergency will occur during the 1 year operation period of the ship (nonstop day&night), calculate what is the probability that this one emergency occurring during any given time interval in the year.
If there is still error in my re-phrasing, can you assist in re-phrasing it correctly.
 
I can't tell what the proper phrasing would be, because I don't know what you really need to know. Some context would be helpful.

What you have said here appears to be at least close to what I said your calculation did. So if your goal is to write a question for which that is the answer, then you have done it (though I think my version was better).

A question I often ask when someone is trying to phrase an unclear question is, what will you do with the answer you get? What is your goal?
 
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