Probability of choosing right with contacts

A

Alenkey

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Hi, I’m having a ‘’Mathematical Probability’’ kind of question. Here’s my problem:

You are on your way to buy papayas, and only two stores are selling them in your town, and they are really far away from each other. The thing is, sometimes it is store A that has the best ones, and some other times it is store B. So you have a 50% chances to get to the right store, because you can’t go to both places in time.

You do have contacts, and you decide to call 4 of them to tell you which store has the best papayas. The 1st person usually has an accuracy of 40% of choosing the right store, the second person has 30% accuracy, the third 45% and the last one 20% accuracy.

You decide to call them all, and for some reason all of them are telling you to go to store B.

My question: Will the probability of choosing store B is an advantage since everyone is telling me to go there, or should I simple toss a coin? If it’s better to go with the 4 persons, how advantageous it is to go with them?

I know by making a tree probability I can see how rare it is to get the same anser on thse 4 times, but idk if all of them together can implement the chances of choosing the right store.
Thank's for the help
 
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Suppose that you made your tree diagram or someone told you how rare it is for all contacts to tell you to go to store B then how would you use this information to decide if flipping a coin is better?
 
Alenkey said:
Hi, I’m having a ‘’Mathematical Probability’’ kind of question. Here’s my problem:

You are on your way to buy papayas, and only two stores are selling them in your town, and they are really far away from each other. The thing is, sometimes it is store A that has the best ones, and some other times it is store B. So you have a 50% chances to get to the right store, because you can’t go to both places in time.

You do have contacts, and you decide to call 4 of them to tell you which store has the best papayas. The 1st person usually has an accuracy of 40% of choosing the right store, the second person has 30% accuracy, the third 45% and the last one 20% accuracy.

You decide to call them all, and for some reason all of them are telling you to go to store B.

My question: Will the probability of choosing store B is an advantage since everyone is telling me to go there, or should I simple toss a coin? If it’s better to go with the 4 persons, how advantageous it is to go with them?

I know by making a tree probability I can see how rare it is to get the same anser on thse 4 times, but idk if all of them together can implement the chances of choosing the right store.
Thank's for the help
Click to expand...
Can the contacts' predictions be considered independent events?
 
Alenkey said:
The 1st person usually has an accuracy of 40% of choosing the right store, the second person has 30% accuracy, the third 45% and the last one 20% accuracy.
Click to expand...
If 40% accuracy means they are right only 40% of the time, and wrong 60% of the time, then I'd want to bet against them. If they all agree on store B, go to store A.

Now, if some of them were better than a coin toss, things might be different.

Where did this "problem" come from? Is it for school, or something else?
 
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