Probability of goals in a match

Peter lisica

New member
Joined
Feb 12, 2017
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1
Hi,

My questions reffers to how bookies in sport betting set up the percentege to an over and under 2,5 total goals.

The question is this.
If you presume that the average goals in a match is 2,5. then the probability of going either way is 50/50.
But if you presume that the average goals in a match will be 2,7. How would you then calculate the probability of total goals beeing under or over 2,5 goals.

It sounds so easy and i'm sure it will be for some of you, but i can't figure it out:/
Thanks for the help!
 
Hi,

My questions reffers to how bookies in sport betting set up the percentege to an over and under 2,5 total goals.

The question is this.
If you presume that the average goals in a match is 2,5. then the probability of going either way is 50/50.
But if you presume that the average goals in a match will be 2,7. How would you then calculate the probability of total goals beeing under or over 2,5 goals.

It sounds so easy and i'm sure it will be for some of you, but i can't figure it out:/
Thanks for the help!
There is no exact answer. It depends on what distribution is used for the number of goals and I would assume that is up to the individual bookie. Also, one might use different distributions for different sports and or different teams.
 
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